Former Red Sox Closer Lights A Papelbon-fire

What is it about becoming a member of the Phillies that gets certain players to say things to rile opposing fanbases?  It began so innocently five years ago when Jimmy Rollins proclaimed the Phillies the team to beat in the NL East.  Then Cole Hamels called the Mets chokers after the Phillies won the World Series in 2008.  Now one of the newest members of the Phillies has made a comment that is sure to get the attention of his former fans.

On Thursday, Phillies' closer Jonathan Papelbon told a Philadelphia radio station that his new team's fans "tend to know the game a little better" than Red Sox fans.  He also went on to say that fans in Boston are "a little bit more hysterical when it comes to the game of baseball".

Oh, really?  I believe now would be a good time for me to respond to Papelbon's comments by quoting the great philosopher, Jules Winnfield, when I say "Well, allow me to retort".

Prior to 2007, Phillies fans stayed away from the ballpark in droves.  When Citizens Bank Park opened in 2004, the Phillies averaged 40,125 patrons per home date.  The luster of the new ballpark faded quickly, as attendance plummeted in CBP's second year, with an average of 32,905 fans showing up to see a decent Phillies team finish 88-74.  The 88 victories represented the highest total for a Phillies club since the 1993 National League pennant-winning team.  It was the Phillies' most successful season in 12 years, and home attendance DROPPED by 20%.

Although the Mets ran away with the NL East title in 2006, the Phillies competed for the wild card until the final week of the season.  They fell short in their quest, but not by much, finishing three games behind the playoff-bound Los Angeles Dodgers.  Despite contending for a playoff spot all year, the average attendance for a Phillies' home game in 2006 was 33,356.  Contention brought in an extra 451 fans per game compared to the 2005 team.

Meanwhile, Boston's Fenway Park, which doesn't even have a capacity of 40,000, has drawn over 30,000 fans per game in every season since 1999.  The last time the Red Sox failed to draw over 2,000,000 fans in a non-strike-shortened season was in 1985, which was the same year Jonathan Papelbon turned five.

Of course, Phillies fans, according to Papelbon, know the game better than Red Sox fans do.  That explains why they didn't start showing up to games until after the Phillies actually won something in 2007, which Papelbon would know nothing about since he was too busy winning a World Series in Boston for those "not-as-knowledgeable" Red Sox fans.

Also, how would Papelbon know anything about what Phillies fans are like?  As a member of the Red Sox, he pitched a total of 4⅔ innings at Citizens Bank Park.  He actually pitched very well in Philadelphia, allowing no runs on one hit in five appearances against the Phillies, which means he probably heard a lot of boos from the Philly Phaithful.  Again, this clearly shows the superiority of Phillies fans over Red Sox fans when it comes to knowledge of the game, doesn't it?  When in doubt, just boo.

In 2008, Brad Lidge went 41-for-41 in save opportunities for the Phillies.  The following season, he suffered from a Jekyll and Hyde-like transformation, causing him to pitch like a post-1984 Doug Sisk.  Phillies fans shared their knowledge of four-letter words with Lidge once their post-championship hangover ended.  Is that the "knowledge" Papelbon is referring to?

I understand that Jonathan Papelbon wants his new fanbase to like him.  What player on a new team wouldn't?  But to slap the faces of his former fans with a statement that just isn't true - well, actually, we'd expect that more from a Phillies fan and not a Phillie.  Then again, maybe Papelbon is just trying to fit in with his big-mouthed teammates.

Perhaps Red Sox fan (and Studious Metsimus reader) Chris Giordano said it best when he said, "Maybe Papelbon should take it out on Red Sox management.  The fans had nothing to do with the Red Sox not re-signing him."

The Red Sox weren't aggressive in their pursuit of Papelbon.  The Phillies were.  If Papelbon had a problem with the way his former team went about the negotiating process, that's between him and the front office.  His displeasure should not bring his former fans into the mix.

Simply stated, Red Sox fans know their baseball.  They're passionate about it in a way that Papelbon will more than likely never see in Philadelphia.  Phillies fans will only come out for a winner.  Red Sox fans come out for the Red Sox.  Papelbon better hope the Phillies continue to win division titles during his four years there.  If not, the only sounds he'll be hearing at Citizens Bank Park will be coming from the crickets.  But then again, he probably already has "knowledge" of that.

I'm Glad For John Franco, But Where's Jesse Orosco?

I’m very happy that John Franco has become the latest member of the Mets’ Hall of Fame.  He is more than deserving of the honor, having pitched 14 seasons with the Mets and becoming the franchise’s all-time saves leader.  However, I am surprised by the fact that Franco was inducted this year, when there is another reliever who’s been waiting longer and is equally, if not more deserving of enshrinement into the team’s hallowed Hall.  My friends, where’s the love for Jesse Orosco?

When John Franco became the Mets’ all-time leader in saves in 1994, he broke Jesse Orosco’s record.  Prior to 1984, when the Mets became a perennial contender, Orosco was the sole bright spot on a last-place team.

In 1983, he went 13-7 with a 1.47 ERA and 17 saves.  He actually led the team in wins that year despite pitching exclusively out of the bullpen.  For his efforts, Orosco made his first All-Star team, finished 3rd in the Cy Young vote and actually finished 17th in MVP despite playing for a 94-loss team.  The following year, Orosco became the first Met to surpass 30 saves in a single season and was voted to his second All-Star team, the first reliever in franchise history to make multiple trips to the Midsummer Classic.  Two years later, Orosco made the final outs (and taught us all how to toss our gloves in the air in celebration properly) in both the NLCS and the World Series.

From 1981-1986, Orosco was 43-36 with a 2.31 ERA and 91 saves.  Think about that for a second.  He had a 2.31 ERA over a six-year span, a period in which he tossed 483.2 innings.  This is not a small sample of innings.  Simply stated, Jesse Orosco was one of the most consistent and effective relievers in Mets history.

It might be said that Franco’s selection was made so that each of the past two Hall of Fame classes wouldn’t focus so much on the 1986 team, what with Davey Johnson, Darryl Strawberry, Dwight Gooden and Frank Cashen getting the call in 2010.  But Mookie Wilson (1996), Keith Hernandez (1997) and Gary Carter (2001) were selected consecutively (no Met was selected from 1998-2000).  Tom Seaver and Jerry Koosman were also selected in consecutive years when they got the call in 1988 and 1989, respectively.

If you want to take things a little further, here's another Hall of Fame nugget for you.  Tug McGraw pitched in eight postseason games for the Mets.  In those eight games, he was 1-0 with two saves and a 1.66 ERA.  Jesse Orosco also pitched in eight postseason games as a Met.  In his eight appearances, Orosco went 3-0 with two saves and a 1.97 ERA.  Both McGraw and Orosco played longer for other teams than they did for the Mets (the Tugger pitched ten seasons in Philadelphia, while Orosco pitched for another 16 years with various teams after leaving the Mets) and they both won another World Series elsewhere, with McGraw recording the final out of the Phillies' first-ever title in 1980 and Orosco winning a ring as a member of the 1988 Dodgers.  Of course, Tug McGraw has been in the Mets' Hall of Fame since 1993, while Jesse is still in limbo.

Speaking of the World Series, John Franco was the last Mets pitcher to win a World Series game, as he was given credit for the victory in Game 3 of the 2000 World Series.  Jesse Orosco is the last Mets pitcher to be on the mound when the Mets won a World Series.  There’s a big difference between winning a World Series game and winning a World Series.

Hey, I have no problem with John Franco making it into the Mets’ Hall of Fame and I congratulate him for becoming the 26th Met to receive the honor.  But he shouldn’t have been selected before Jesse Orosco.  Orosco had just as many accomplishments as a Met as Franco did, but he’s been waiting for the Hall honor longer than Franco did.  Hopefully, the Mets will get it right and induct Orosco next year.  He’s sure waited long enough to get that call.

Jimmy Rollins, Comedian

I've got a funny story to tell you.  No, really.  It'll crack you up.  It's about Phillies' shortstop Jimmy Rollins.  Giggling yet?  Okay, here goes.

Jimmy Rollins wants a five-year contract.

I'll give you a few moments to collect yourself.

It's true.  The former National League MVP (accent on "former") and soon-to-be free agent is seeking a five-year deal to remain with the Phillies or with whoever doesn't mind giving their money away.

 Jimmy Rollins' decision to ask for a five-year deal is certainly a head-scratcher.

Let's review this together.  This isn't the 2007 Jimmy Rollins we're taking for a spin here.  You remember that model, don't you?  Rollins was 28 years old and entering his prime when he proclaimed the Phillies as the team to beat in the National League East and then went out and delivered an MVP season.  That was four years ago.

Now Rollins is about to turn 33.  He is coming off a season in which he was placed on the disabled list for the fourth time in four seasons.  He has also continued his decline as the Phillies' leadoff hitter and spark plug.  After his magical 2007 season in which he hit .296 with 38 doubles, a league-leading 20 triples, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 41 SB and 139 runs scored (also pacing the NL in that category), his numbers have suffered.

Since 2008, Rollins has missed a total of 126 games for the Phillies.  His batting average over the past four seasons has been an unimpressive .261 and his on-base percentage (.325) has not been what a team should expect from its leadoff hitter.  Furthermore, Rollins' unexpected power surge in 2007 has proven to be a fluke, as the shortstop has averaged only 14 HR per season since his MVP season.

Speaking of flukes, do you remember those 20 triples he hit in 2007?  (You should.  I only mentioned it two paragraphs ago.)  In the four years since the 2007 campaign, Rollins has managed to hit only 19 triples.  That's one less triple in a quartet of seasons than he managed to hit in one playing-over-his-head season.

So we have a player who's clearly on the downside of his career, knows all the employees at the DL Hotel by first name, and this player is asking to be rewarded with a five-year contract?  Is he being serious or does he think we're as dumb as Turd Ferguson?

Turd Ferguson doesn't think Jimmy Rollins is being funny with his contract demands, and Turd Ferguson knows a thing or two about what's funny.

Let's talk about some of Jimmy Rollins' teammates, shall we?  First, there's Cliff Lee.  In 2010, he helped lead the Texas Rangers to their first World Series appearance in franchise history, a year after he pitched in the Fall Classic for the Phillies.  From 2008 to 2010, Lee went 48-25 with a 2.98 ERA and picked up valuable postseason experience.  For his efforts, the Phillies signed the 32-year-old Lee to a $120 million contract.  How long was this contract for?  Five years.

Now, let's discuss Rollins' infield mate, Ryan Howard.  The Phillies' behemoth has been one of the most feared power hitters in all of baseball since making his major league debut in 2004.  Since 2006, Howard has averaged 44 HR and 133 RBI per season, along with a .274 batting average and .369 on-base percentage.  In April 2010, the Phillies gave the then-30-year-old Howard a $125 million contract extension that would begin in 2012.  What was the length of Howard's deal?  Five years.

Finally, let's look at a certain Harry Leroy Halladay.  The Phillies traded for Halladay prior to the 2010 season and gave him a $60 million contract extension that began this season.  At the time of the trade and subsequent extension, Halladay was 32 years old.  Since then, Halladay has given the Phillies a regular season perfect game, a postseason no-hitter, a 40-16 won-loss record and a stellar 2.40 ERA.  So how long was that extension the Phillies gave him?  Three years.

So Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, two of the best pitchers in the National League who have no health issues and are showing no signs of slowing down, get five years and three years, respectively.  Ryan Howard, the top slugger in the league who had no injury history prior to signing his deal, also gets five years.  None of the three players was older than 32 years old at the time they signed their deals with the Phillies.

Jimmy Rollins is currently older than all three players mentioned above at the time they put their John Hancocks on their contracts.  He also has an injury history and has seen a sharp decline in his numbers, something Lee, Halladay and Howard could not say when they signed on the dotted line.

There is no way Rollins will get a five-year contract from anyone, including the only team he has suited up for.  If the Phillies gave five years to the healthy, productive and younger Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard and only three years to one of the best pitchers of our generation in Roy Halladay, why should they give the brittle Rollins what he's asking for?

Jose Reyes might not get more than five years and that's the 28-year-old reigning National League batting champion we're talking about.  Rollins should consider himself lucky if he gets a Jeter-esque three-year deal. 

Simply stated, Wile E. Coyote, Genius has a better chance to get a five-year deal than Jimmy Rollins, Comedian.  At least with Wile E., you know he'll come back from an injury quickly to do what he does best.

Phoreshadowing The Phillies' Phuture

In making the final out of the Phillies' season for the second straight year, Ryan Howard suffered an apparent Achilles injury, falling to the ground and writhing in pain as the Cardinals celebrated their unlikely division series victory.  In a worst-case scenario (torn ACL), Howard would miss nine months or more while recovering from surgery to repair the tear.  In other words, Howard's 2012 season would be kaput.

Although Ryan Howard batted only .253 for the Phillies in 2011, he was their main power source, providing 33 HR and 116 RBI in 152 games.  For a team that plays half of its games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Howard was the only player to hit over 20 HR.  Free-agent-to-be Raul Ibañez was second on the team with exactly 20 HR and 84 RBI.  Take out Howard and the soon-to-be 40-year-old Ibañez, and no Phillie hit more than 17 HR (Shane Victorino, of all people, hit 17 bombs) or picked up more than 63 RBI (accomplished by Jimmy Rollins, another free-agent-to-be who has already gone on the record as saying he won't accept a hometown discount to re-sign with the Phillies).

So if Howard doesn't play in 2012 and Ibañez leaves via free agency, the Phillies' lineup will look an awful lot like the Mets.  Even with those two players in the everyday lineup for Philadelphia in 2011, the Mets still scored more runs (718) than the Phillies (713), produced more doubles (309 to 258), triples (39 to 38), hits (1,477 to 1,409), stolen bases (130 to 96) and even led them in walks (571 to 539).  That's right.  The Mets, who used Daniel Murphy as their cleanup hitter for 33 games, were walked 32 more times than the Phillies, who supposedly have a more fearsome lineup.

Now take Howard and Ibañez out of that lineup and what do you have left?  A declining and oft-injured second baseman in Chase Utley, an as-yet unsigned shortstop who will be 33 in November and who has a career OBP of .329 primarily out of the leadoff spot in the batting order, and a 36-year-old third baseman who produced a .277, 5 HR, 50 RBI season in 122 games played (numbers eerily similar to Justin Turner's 2011 season). Basically, the Phillies offense will be led by Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence.  I mean, catcher Carlos Ruiz led all Phillies' starters (minimum 100 games played as a Phillie) in batting average with a .283 mark.  When your most consistent hitter over a full season is Carlos Ruiz, that says a lot about your offense.

Does anyone really think Chase Utley is going to return to his All-Star caliber form?  Utley played in 103 games in 2011 and hit .259 with 11 HR and 44 RBI.  Think about that.  Batting in the middle of that lineup and playing in that bandbox of a ballpark, Utley managed only 44 RBI in 454 plate appearances.  To put that into perspective, Daniel Murphy drove in five more runs (49) than Utley did in 31 fewer plate appearances (423).  Even Josh Thole (40 RBI) drove in more runs per plate appearance (386 PA) than Utley did in 2011.  Since 2007, when Utley hit .332, his batting average has gone down every year.  He hit .292 in 2008, .282 in 2009, .275 in 2010 and bottomed out at .259 in 2011.  The Phillies will have to deal with his declining production for the remaining two years and $30 million of his contract.

 Like the rest of his teammates, Chase Utley is literally down and out.

If Jimmy Rollins doesn't return, who will be their starting shortstop?  (It better not be Jose Reyes.)  Surely, they can't entrust the position to Wilson Valdez, he of the .294 OBP in 2011?  But maybe his defense is better than Rollins.  Uh, actually it's not.  Rollins played in 142 games and made only seven errors, while Valdez played in 99 games and committed nine errors.

Ever since Scott Rolen showed his brotherly love for Philadelphia by leaving the city in a trade in 2002, the Phillies have been searching for his replacement.  They tried David Bell from 2003-2006 and got nothing.  They employed a trio of third sackers in 2007 (Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms, Abraham Nuñez), all of whom started at least 50 games at the hot corner.  They tried Pete Happy (Pedro Feliz) for two seasons in 2008 and 2009, before finally settling on Placido Polanco in 2010.  This is the same Placido Polanco who was acquired in the Scott Rolen trade in 2002 and replaced him at third base for the remainder of that season before moving over to second base in 2003 and 2004 to accommodate David Bell.  Once Chase Utley was called up to the team, Polanco was out of a job and was traded to Detroit in 2005, where he blossomed, hitting .311 in four seasons with the Tigers.  So of course, the Phillies re-signed him prior to the 2010 season and have seen his numbers wilt.

As of right now, Hunter Pence is the only regular position player on the Phillies who isn't north of age 30.  The pitching staff of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt might be truncated by one in 2012, as Roy Oswalt has a $16 mutual option for the 2012 season.  However, Oswalt went 9-10 for a team that won 102 games, finished the year with his second-highest ERA over a full season in his 11-year career, and spent almost two months on the disabled list.  If the Phillies think that's worth $16 million, who am I to stop them?

Vance Worley might be able to replace Oswalt in the rotation, but is he for real?  In parts of two seasons with the Phillies, Worley is 12-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 starts.  But this great start wasn't something that could have been predicted after looking at his numbers in the minor leagues.  Worley started 76 games over parts of four seasons in the minors.  In those starts, he was barely above .500, going 25-23.  His ERA was unimpressive (3.80) and his WHIP (1.25) wasn't exactly among the league leaders.  He also wasn't a strikeout pitcher in the minors, averaging 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings.  Then he comes to the major leagues, where hitters aren't familiar with him and he lowers his ERA by a full run, while upping his strikeout rate to 8.1 K/9 IP.  At least Cole Hamels' major league success followed an impressive minor league career, one in which he went 14-4 with a 1.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and registered 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.

You didn't think I'd mention Cole Hamels and not show his photo, did you?

There are too many question marks surrounding the Phillies in 2012.  Their position players are getting older and piling up more injuries.  Their main source for power might miss the entire 2012 season, a season in which his new five-year, $125 million contract kicks in.  Their left side of the infield might consist of Placido Polanco and Wilson Valdez, two players in their mid-30s, who combined for six home runs and 80 RBI in 2011.  If John Mayberry (15 HR, 49 RBI in 104 games) becomes the Phillies' main power source in 2012, their lineup won't look very scary at all.

Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee might continue to be All-Star-caliber pitchers for years to come.  Or maybe they'll both realize that they're entering their mid-30s and will suffer the same setbacks the other thirty-somethings on the Phillies are.  The Phillies are in more trouble than people think.  Their seasons are ending earlier year after year (World Series losers in 2009, NLCS losers in 2010, NLDS losers in 2011), and that may be a sign of things to come.

For a team like the Mets, the gap between them and the Phillies might be as wide as it's going to get.  The Mets might not have to shorten that gap on their own.  The Phillies might be helping them do it with their multiple albatross contracts and their inevitable meeting with Father Time.  And it all began last night, when Ryan Howard's Achilles decided to go kaplooey.  Because of it, the Phillies' dominance in the National League might soon be going kaplooey as well.

A Dickey vs. A Dick

In Thursday's 8-6 victory in St. Louis, the Mets rallied for six runs in the ninth inning against the wild card contending Cardinals and Bobby Parnell registered his sixth save of the season, his first in which he retired every batter to face him.

After a rainout last night, the Mets play a day-night doubleheader today at Citi Field, a place that has not been too kind to them in 2011.  After registering an 88-74 record at home over the last two seasons, the Mets are 31-44 in their home whites and could finish with their poorest record at home since 1993, when they went 28-53.  (The Mets went 34-46 at Shea Stadium in 2003.)  They have already clinched their first losing season at home since 2004, when they finished 38-43 at Shea Stadium under the "tutelage" of Art Howe.

If the Mets don't want to finish with their worst home record since the days of their feared Frank Tanana, Eric Hillman and Dave Telgheder rotation (hey, don't go hatin' on Telgheder - he was 6-2 in '93), they'll need to come up big against the Phillies and Reds over their final six games.

It all begins today, when R.A. Dickey takes the mound to oppose Cole Hamels, or as we like to call this matchup at Studious Metsimus, it's a Dickey vs. a dick.

R.A. Dickey might be a man of many words, but he is not nearly the multi-tasker Cole Hamels is.  After all, Hamels has proven that he can be an ass and a dick at the same time.

R.A. Dickey has been red hot lately, but unfortunately, he doesn't have the wins to show for it.  Over his last 23 starts, Dickey has pitched to a cool 2.75 ERA.  However, although the Mets have won 12 of those 23 starts, Dickey has only gotten credit for seven of them.  Dickey also hasn't given up more than three earned runs since July 20, a span of 11 starts.

Hamels, on the other hand, has been awful recently, losing his last two starts to the lowly Astros and the contending Cardinals.  After posting a 2.58 ERA over the first five months of the season, Hamels has registered a 4.18 ERA in the month of September.  And let's not even get started with his lifetime record against the Mets.  Ah, forget that.  Let's talk about it right now!

In 16 career starts against the Mets, Hamels is 3-10 with a 4.69 ERA.  Most people learn from their mistakes.  Cole Hamels is not most people.  In 2011, Hamels is 1-2 against New York and is the proud owner of a 9.64 ERA against the Mets.

One person who remembers Hamels very well is R.A. Dickey.  On August 13, 2010, Dickey pitched the best game of his life, completing a one-hit shutout against the Phillies at Citi Field.  The lone hit was a soft sixth inning single by (you guessed it) Cole Hamels.

The recipe is there for a victory.  It's the red hot R.A. Dickey on the mound for the Mets.  It's the ass who's also a dick taking the ball for the Phillies.  Philadelphia has already clinched home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (including the World Series, if they make it that far).  The Mets are just trying to re-establish their home-field advantage.  I'll take my chances with a Dickey over a dick anytime.

17 Games Left: Third Is The Word

With today's loss to the Cubs, the Mets fell to 71-74 on the season.  They remain two thousand games behind the first place Phillies (that will change after tonight's Phillies-Brewers matchup has been completed) and a few hundred games behind the wild card-leading Braves (also pending tonight's game).  However, they do remain four games ahead of the fourth place Nationals and 5½ games in front of the lowly Marlins.

So the question is not whether the Mets can catch the Braves for the wild card or cut the Phillies' lead in the NL East to one thousand games (even though a three-game sweep of Philadelphia in two weeks would certainly help), it's whether or not the Mets can forget that there are 17 games left in the season and hold off the Nats and Fish to finish higher than fourth place for the first time since moving across the parking lot to Citi Field.

The 2007 and 2008 Mets famously went 5-12 and 7-10, respectively, in their final 17 games to lose their not-so-firm grip on first place and the wild card, failing to make the playoffs each year.  The 2009 Mets also went 7-10 in their final 17 games, but managed to hold off the Washington Nationals in their quest for fourth place in the NL East (mission accomplished - yes!)

Last year's team was 72-73 at the 145-game mark, as they were duking it out with the Marlins for third place.  They then proceeded to go (you guessed it) 7-10 in their final 17 games, finishing in fourth place, a game behind the Marlins, but at least ahead of the last place Nats.

So what can we expect the Mets to do this year now that they've reached the dreaded "17 to play" mark of the season?

For one thing, the Mets have what should be a comfortable lead in the NL East over the Nationals and Marlins.  But then again, being four games up on Washington doesn't guarantee anything.  The Nationals still have something to play for.  Since moving to Washington from Montreal following the 2004 season, the Nats have finished last in every year but one (2007, when they finished two games ahead of the cellar-dwelling Marlins).  With the potential for their highest finish in the NL East, the Nationals will surely be playing hard over their final 17 games.  The Marlins, on the other hand, just lost six games over the past two weeks to the Mets.  The demons of 2007 and 2008 have been exorcised and the Marlins should pose no threat to the Mets over their final 17 games (we hope).

A quick look at my once shiny, now falling apart Mets pocket schedule reveals that the Mets will be playing a four-game series with the fourth place (and hungry) Nationals next week at Citi Field.  The Mets cannot lose this series if a) they want to finish .500 or better and 2) they don't want to choke away third place to Jayson Werth and his cohorts.  They must split this series at the very least.  Taking three of four would all but eliminate the Nats from third place contention and a four-game sweep plus drilling Werth in his $126 million @$$ would be the cherry on top of the mediocre sundae.

It would behoove the Mets to do well against Washington because after that series, the Mets will be playing the wild card-leading Braves in Atlanta (they have a worse winning percentage at Turner Field than the Washington Generals have against the Harlem Globetrotters), followed by a trip to St. Louis against the somehow-still-in-it Cardinals, and topped off with a three-game set against the team with the best record in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies, who somehow are on their way to the best record in franchise history, even without the aforementioned Jayson Werth (guess their key off-season acquisition of Juan Samuel to be their third base coach really panned out for them).

Should the Mets falter against the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies, they'll need to sweep the Reds at Citi Field to close out the regular season to have any realistic hope of finishing ahead of the Nationals for third place.  The lowly Reds surely remember the Mets' first-ever four-game sweep in Cincinnati a few months ago, so they will not be an easy opponent, despite what the won-loss records say.

The Mets have gone 7-10 over their final 17 games in each of the last three seasons (and it's four out of five seasons if you go back to 2006; even that team went 7-10 over their final 17 regular season games).  Doing the same this year would produce a 78-84 record, a one-game dropoff from their 2010 final record.  It would also put them in jeopardy of being passed by the Washington Nationals for third place in the NL East.  Finishing .500 or better should be the ultimate goal for this year's Mets, but finishing in third place is the more likely (and attainable) goal.  It's time to show the rest of the National League East (meaning those teams not named Los Phillies or Los Braves) that this Mets team has had enough of late-season chokes and fourth place finishes.  Say it loud and say it proud!  Third is the word!  And nothing else will be acceptable!

The Rare Recap: Mets Pound Cole Hamels Into Submission

If you're a regular reader of Studious Metsimus (I'm talking to all 4½ of you), you know that we rarely do recaps here. However, after today's 11-2 blowout of the Phillies, it would be hard not to do a recap, basically because there's something I have to get off my chest. It's something that's been on my mind ever since I listened to WFAN on a cold December afternoon in 2008, when Cole Hamels called the Mets "choke artists".

Come closer to the screen so you can get a clear view of what I have to say. A little closer. Just a little more. Okay, here goes.

THE METS OWN COLE HAMELS!!

Even Cole Hamels' identical twin brother (see photo above) knows how well the Mets do against his sibling.

In a nationally televised FOX game, the entire country got to see the Jonathon Niese (who pitched seven strong innings) and the Mets pound Hamels, knocking the All-Star pitcher out of the game with one out in the fifth inning. Hamels tied his career-high by allowing seven runs (all earned) on eight hits. He also walked four batters while striking out three.

It was the first time Hamels allowed more than four earned runs in a game since April 5, when (you guessed it) the Mets scored six runs against him in 2.2 innings.

Prior to the game, Hamels was 11-4 with a 2.32 ERA and a National League-leading 0.93 WHIP. Notice my use of the word "was" in the last sentence. So how did the Mets do it against Cole Hamels today? They did it like so...

Scott Hairston doubled. Daniel Murphy singled. Jon Niese walked. Justin Turner singled. Scott Hairston doubled (again). Jason Bay walked. Nick Evans walked. Ruben Tejada singled. Angel Pagan hit a sacrifice fly. (Hey, Hamels finally got someone out!) Justin Turner walked. Daniel Murphy hit a 395-foot homer. Jason Bay singled. Nick Evans tripled.

After allowing the Mets' Murderers Row to reach base against him 12 times, Charlie Manuel finally took Hamels out of the game, where he left to a chorus of boos (or were those Phillies fans saying RAUUUUUUUUL for Raul Ibañez? I couldn't tell because I don't speak "stupid").

The change in pitchers made no difference to the Mets, as they scored four runs on seven hits off relievers David Herndon and Danys Baez, with the big blow coming off the bat of Scott Hairston. The rightfielder, who was only in the game because Carlos Beltran had a one thousand degree fever, (and that's in Celsius!) launched a three-run bomb into the left field landing, a place usually reserved for home runs by opposing teams. The homer gave Hairston three extra-base hits on the day and a season-high five RBIs.

Raise your hands, raise your hands if you're sure! Scott Hairston was certainly sure, hitting a titanic three-run blast that "put it in the books" for the Mets. (Photo by Nick Laham/Getty Images)

So now you know how the Mets crushed the Phillies. Now you get to sit through the juicy parts, where I give you Cole Hamels' numbers against teams that don't have "Mets" on their jerseys, versus what he does against the boys in blue and orange.

• Career W-L record vs. the Mets: 3-10
• Career W-L record vs. everyone else: 68-40

• Career ERA vs. the Mets: 4.69
• Career ERA vs. everyone else: 3.31

• Career WHIP vs. the Mets: 1.59
• Career WHIP vs. everyone else: 1.11

• This year vs. the Mets: 1-2, 9.64 ERA, 2.00 WHIP
• This year vs. everyone else: 10-3, 1.91 ERA, 0.87 WHIP

The Mets hit Cole Hamels well just about every time they face him. Whether it's a lineup consisting of Ike Davis, David Wright, Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran, or a batting order that features none of them, the Mets usually find a way to make Cole Hamels eat his words.

Three years ago, Cole Hamels called the Mets choke artists. Now we know why he said it. After all, it takes one to know one.

DJ Joey B Presents: Frankie Knuckles' Greatest Hits

What's up, homies? You may know me as Joey Beartran, the roving reporter and culinary expert for Studious Metsimus. But ever since I met Howie Rose during a Mets game in Texas a few weeks ago, I've begun to dream about a career in radio.

The Mets aren't currently hiring, so I decided to go into the radio business for myself as DJ Joey B. And as a bonus to you, the Studious Metsimus reader, I've decided to give you a firsthand look at my first Top Ten countdown. Today's countdown will focus on a former Met who was just traded to Milwaukee. That's right, Mets fans. I'm talking about Frankie Knuckles.

Now, in case you forgot, Frankie Knuckles is not the name of the newest character on MTV's "Jersey Shore". Rather, it is the pseudonym for Francisco Rodriguez, a nickname given to him by my colleague after he took part in last year's "Beat Your Dad-In-Law At Work" Day.

Now that Frankie Knuckles has been traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for two players to be named later, (I'm surprised they don't have names yet. Their parents are either very slow or expected to have a girl.) I'd like to present to you Frankie Knuckles' Greatest Hits (pun very much intended). These are the top ten infamous moments in Francisco Rodriguez's short Mets career.


10. Justin Maxwell Goes Grand (9/30/09)

With the season winding down and the Mets already having lost over 90 games for the first time since 2004, Frankie Knuckles was called upon to protect a two-run lead in the ninth inning against the Washington Nationals. In what was a microcosm of the Mets' lost season, K-Rod loaded up the bases with two outs, then forced in a run by walking Adam Dunn. He then found the plate and Justin Maxwell found his home run swing. Maxwell's walk-off grand slam gave the Mets their final loss of the season.


9. Second Verse, Same As The First (7/3/10)

Less than a year after his Maxwell Meltdown, it was deja vu all over again for Frankie Knuckles and the Mets. In a game started by Nationals' phenom Stephen Strasburg, it was the Mets who held a 5-3 lead going to the bottom of the ninth inning. Three walks and three hits later (including a two-run double by Adam Dunn that might have been called a walk-off grand slam had it not been for instant replay), the Nationals had the victory and K-Rod had ruined my first Mets game in Washington (yes, I was there...you can read about my experience at the game here.)


8. When A Win Feels Like A Loss (7/18/10)

In yet another game I attended (this time at AT&T Park in San Francisco), the Mets held a two-run lead over the Giants going to the bottom of the ninth inning. Of course, your fav'rit Mr. Knuckles coughed up the lead, giving up two runs in the inning. However, it should have been three runs and a loss for K-Rod and the Mets, but a blown call by home plate umpire Phil Cuzzi on what should have been Travis Ishikawa's game-winning run, gave the Mets a second chance. The Mets took advantage of Cuzzi's call, scoring a run in the tenth inning, before K-Rod got out of a self-induced jam in the bottom of the inning. We gave a courtesy cheer after K-Rod retired the final batter with the tying and winning runs on base, but it sure felt like a loss.


7. The Game Just Kept Going...And Going...And Going (4/17/10)

In one of the craziest games in recent memory, the Mets and Cardinals played to a scoreless tie through 18 innings at Busch Stadium. St. Louis had already used their entire bullpen and utility infielder Felipe Lopez (who pitched a scoreless 18th). Then they relieved their position player with another position player, Joe Mather, who promptly gave up the first run of the game in the top of the 19th inning. Enter Frankie Knuckles. He allowed St. Louis to tie the game in the bottom of the 19th. Fortunately, Mather was left in the game to pitch the 20th inning and the Mets re-took the lead. This time, K-Rod was not allowed to finish what he started, and Mike Pelfrey was brought in to record his first career save.


6. S.D.S.D. (San Diego Slam Dancing) (8/7/09)

Everth Cabrera had hit a whopping one home run in his major league career. Then he came up to bat against Frankie Knuckles with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth inning after the Padres had already tied the game. Nine pitches later, Cabrera had doubled his career home run total. Another day, another walk-off grand slam.


5. What The 'Eck Is Going On Here? (6/2/10)

Little David Eckstein, all three feet, six inches of him (give or take a few inches) was the Padres' last chance when he batted against Frankie Knuckles with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning in a game led by the Mets, 1-0. K-Rod had just struck out the previous two batters (Matt Stairs, Jerry Hairston) with the tying run in scoring position. First pitch to Eckstein, strike one. Second pitch, strike two. Third pitch, base hit up the middle, tying run scores. Sigh. At least K-Rod didn't lose this game. That "honor" went to Raul Valdes, who gave up the Frankie Knuckles Special, a walk-off grand slam to Adrian Gonzalez.


5. Thank You Sir, May I Have Another? (5/27/11)

The Mets had come from behind against their arch-rivals from Philadelphia at Citi Field, erasing a 2-0 deficit by scoring single runs in the fifth, sixth and seventh innings. They kept that 3-2 lead until the eighth inning, when the Phillies tied it. With the game knotted at 3 going to the ninth inning, Frankie Knuckles was summoned from the bullpen, trying desperately to keep the game tied. He started out fine, retiring Raul Ibañez on a fly ball to center. Then the hits kept coming, and coming, and coming some more. Carlos Ruiz stroked a single. Then Ross Gload picked up a hit. Then Domonic Brown did the same. So did Chase Utley. And Placido Polanco. When all was said and done, the Phillies had scored three runs on five hits off K-Rod. At least there was a bright side to this performance, as K-Rod didn't give up a grand slam.


4. A Gift For Mariano (6/28/09)

In this game, K-Rod did not blow a lead. Rather, he was called upon to keep the game close. The Mets were trailing the Yankees by a run in the ninth inning. However, K-Rod decided to give the gift that keeps on giving, walking Brett Gardner and Derek Jeter after allowing a leadoff single to Jorge Posada. Up came Mariano Rivera, the Yankees' closer who had never driven in a run in his storied major league career. After this at-bat, that was no longer the case, as Frankie Knuckles gave Rivera a free pass, forcing in a run. Mariano went on to record his 500th career save after retiring the Mets in the bottom of the ninth, making K-Rod's gift take on a special meaning.


3. Conrad The Barbarian (6/16/11)

In the most recent addition to the list, the Mets appeared to have registered one of their most spirited wins of the year, erasing a four-run deficit against the Braves to take an 8-6 lead into the bottom of the ninth inning. Terry Collins brought in K-Rod to protect the two-run lead, but he gave up a one-out single to Jason Heyward. Up came pinch-hitter Brooks Conrad, who wasn't exactly tearing it up at the major league level (.205, 1 HR, 5 RBI, 17 strikeouts in 39 at-bats) at the time. Too bad Frankie Knuckles wasn't aware of those numbers, as Conrad launched a game-tying two-run homer off the Mets closer. The Braves went on to win the game in the tenth inning, preventing the Mets from going above .500.


2. Two Hands (6/12/09)

Although this moment ranks at No. 2, it was the lack of that number that caused K-Rod to lose the game, as Luis Castillo failed to use two hands to catch Alex Rodriguez's pop-up on what should have been the final out in a Mets victory. Instead, he dropped the ball, the Yankees scored the tying and winning runs (with Mark Teixeira hustling all the way home from first), and Frankie Knuckles probably pondered using those knuckles on Luis Castillo's head. Speaking of using one's fists...


The No. 1 Infamous Moment For Frankie Knuckles As A Met Is...

What else could it be? It's the one moment that didn't take place on the baseball diamond, but got more coverage than anything K-Rod ever did on the field. On August 11, 2010, Francisco Rodriguez earned the name Frankie Knuckles by assaulting his girlfriend's father in the Mets clubhouse following the Mets' 6-2 loss to the Colorado Rockies. He was arrested and did not play for the Mets again in 2010, as the Papi Punch tore a ligament in K-Rod's thumb. It also bought him an anger management course and began the countdown towards his departure from the Mets, which was made official after this week's All-Star Game.

So long, K-Rod. You can leave your time card behind. We'll remember to punch out for you.

17 Games To Decide The Season

In 2007, the New York Mets were sitting pretty atop the National League East, owners of a seven game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies with 17 games to play. They failed to make the playoffs.

The following year, they held a 3½ game lead in the division when the season was down to its final 17 games. Once again, the Mets did not advance to the postseason.

Everything changed for the Mets in 2007 and 2008 during those two 17-game stretches. Hopes were dashed as seasons crashed. Now the Mets are heading into another critical 17-game stretch. Although this one won't decide the outcome of an individual season, it might end up determining the direction of the entire franchise for years to come.

Beginning with tonight's second-half opener against the Phillies, the Mets play 17 games between now and July 31, the date of the trade deadline. The Mets have already traded away closer Francisco Rodriguez and have numerous teams interested in rightfielder Carlos Beltran.

Sandy Alderson has publicly stated that whether or not the Mets trade Beltran by July 31 rests on the performance of the team between tonight and the trade deadline. Should the team do well and inch closer to the Braves in the race for the wild card, Beltran might remain with the Mets past July 31. Should the team falter over the next two and a half weeks...well...you get the picture.

The Mets have already failed on two occasions when all they needed to do was play decently over a do-or-die 17-game stretch. Had the Mets gone 6-11 over the last 17 games of the 2007 season, they would have won the division title. Instead, they went 4-13 and found their way into the darkest pages of the history books. If they had only gone 8-9 over their final 17 games in '08, Milwaukee would have come to Shea Stadium for a one-game playoff to determine the NL Wild Card. Instead, the Mets went 7-10 and we Shea'd Goodbye earlier than we would have liked.

Failure over the next 17 games won't end the season. The Mets will still be playing baseball over the next two months. But losing over the next 2½ weeks would be tantamount to raising the proverbial white flag. If the Mets don't do well, Carlos Beltran will be traded for a prospect who may or may not be a part of the Mets' future, Jose Reyes might entertain thoughts of packing his bags once the season ends, and fans will come to Citi Field in August and September dressed as empty seats.

The Mets haven't had a winning season since they moved to Citi Field. They haven't won when the games have mattered the most for longer than that. Isn't it time for the Mets to scratch that 17-game itch?

Halfway To Sanity: First Half Recap

The Mets lost to the Detroit Tigers today by the score of 5-2, ending their four-game winning streak, a streak that pushed them over .500 for the first time since the fifth game of the season. With today's loss, the Mets dropped to 41-40 at the midway point of the season.

While some people expected the Mets to be right around the .500 mark, including yours truly, the fact that they've achieved their record without Johan Santana throwing a single pitch and with their corner infielders and leading power hitters (David Wright, Ike Davis) disabled for a good chunk of the first half is all the more Amazin'.

Now that the Mets have reached the 81-game plateau, let's look back at the first half and dig up some interesting stats on your fav'rit men in blue and orange.

By pitching the final inning of today's loss, Francisco Rodriguez reached the season's midway point with 30 games finished, putting him on pace for 60 such games, or five above the 55 needed for his contract to vest for 2012. Even if K-Rod doesn't get traded to another team, he might have difficulty reaching 55 games finished, and it might be his own fault. Here are his stats before and after his team's 81st game over the past few seasons:

• 2010: First half - 1.99 ERA; Second half - spent most of it either disabled or in handcuffs.
• 2009: First half - 1.59 ERA; Second half - 6.67 ERA.
• 2008: First half - 1.88 ERA; Second half - 2.70 ERA.
• 2007: First half - 2.27 ERA; Second half - 3.41 ERA.

Historically, Frankie Rodriguez has performed extremely well in the first half of the season, only to come back to Earth in the second half. If 2011 becomes his fifth consecutive season with a sluggish second half, he might be taken out of games he would normally finish, due to a rough outing or twelve. So far this season, he has finished 30 of the 38 games in which he has appeared.

Jose Reyes. What else can we say about him that hasn't already been said ad nauseum? After today's 2-for-3 performance, his batting average is up to a lofty .352, with an on-base percentage hovering around .400. He leads or is among the league leaders in batting average, hits, multi-hit games, runs scored, doubles, triples and stolen bases. But there might be some things you didn't know about his historical season.

Did you know that Reyes is also the toughest player to strike out in the National League, fanning 26 times in 374 plate appearances? Did you know that Reyes is sixth in the National League in slugging percentage (.529), despite having only three home runs? Did you know that Reyes has more triples (15) than eight National League teams do? (For the record, here are the other teams and their total number of triples: St. Louis (13), Los Angeles (12), Florida (11), San Francisco (11), Washington (11), Pittsburgh (10), Cincinnati (9), Atlanta (6).)

For our final stat, let's look at the team as a whole and compare them to the Philadelphia Phillies. No one will confuse the Mets for the Phillies, the team with the best record in the National League and one of the favorites to represent the NL in the World Series. However, statistically speaking, the Mets are better than the Phillies in a number of unexpected categories.

The Mets are "up top" in many offensive categories that the Phillies used to dominate.

The Mets are second in the National League in batting average (.264). Where are the Phillies? All the way down at No. 10 with a .246 average.

For all the great sluggers the Phillies have, it is the Mets who have the higher slugging percentage (.388), while the Phillies are 11th in the league with their .375 mark.

The Phillies have a number of players who might receive an intentional walk or two. However, it is the Mets and their singles-hitting lineup who lead the National League in walks, drawing 293 free passes over their first 81 games. The Phillies have 272 in the same amount of games.

As expected, the Phillies have more home runs than the Mets, leading New York in that category, 67-52. But for all those balls leaving the yard, it is the Mets who have crossed the plate more often, and it's not even close. The Mets have outscored Philadelphia over their first 81 games, 369-327, showing that small ball can be just as effective in the run-scoring process as looking for the three-run homer.

Alas, despite the unexpected offensive superiority of the Mets over the Phillies, they still trail Philadelphia by 9½ games in the NL East. Why is that? Well, the Phillies happen to lead the major leagues with a 2.98 ERA, while the Mets are near the bottom of the league with their 4.06 ERA through 81 games. As the old saying goes, pitching wins championships. It also does a good job of hiding the fact that the Phillies are a very flawed team offensively, while negating many of the fine hitting performances by the Mets.

As much as it pains me to say it, the Mets' pitchers have to bow down in front of the great Phillies' staff.

If the Mets are going to compete for the a playoff spot in the second half, they'll need to improve their pitching. Their starters have been decent, for the most part, but decent equals mediocre. They'll need to step it up on the mound if they're going to go far enough above .500 so that they don't even see it in their rearview mirror. And if they can do that, they'll also lose sight of various National League teams in the rearview mirror as well.

The second half of the season will be very interesting indeed. The team that finishes the second half might not be the same team that begins it tomorrow against the Yankees at Citi Field. David Wright, Ike Davis and Johan Santana may or may not be back in the second half (let's cross our fingers and hope for "may" instead of "may not"), but at the same time, players like Carlos Beltran and Frankie Rodriguez might be trying to help another team get into the postseason.

To paraphrase one-time Mets' nemesis, Joaquin Andujar, the baseball season can be summed up with one word, and that word is "you never know". With the 2011 Mets, you never know which team is going to show up. Will they be the team that scored 52 runs in four games or will they be the team that mysteriously forgot how to use their home field to their advantage?

You never know with these Mets. That's why they're so much fun to watch.

It's Not Just The Failure To Hit With The Bases Loaded

Much has been said about the Mets' failure to produce with the bases loaded this season. After all, the team is hitting .182 (6-for-33) with the bags full. By contrast, the rest of the National League is hitting .294 in those situations. But this is not the only favorable hitting situation that the Mets have failed in repeatedly this season. In fact, the Mets have become quite adept at being inept.

David K. Wright doing what he does best.

Anytime a team has a runner on third base and less than two outs, the odds of scoring that run are obviously very good, as it can score without the benefit of a base hit. However, the Mets seem to have not received that memo. With a runner on third and less than two outs, the Mets are hitting a paltry .196 (11-for-56) with 34 RBI (10 sacrifice flies). They have struck out 17 times in these situations and have yet to hit a home run.

Even scarier is that the Mets have not hit a home run all season with a runner on third base. Of their 28 home runs, 15 have been of the solo variety, five have come with a man on first, five have been hit with a man on second, and the other three (all three-run homers) were blasted with men on first and second. Mets players have come to bat 150 times this season with a man on third base and have yet to hit a ball out of the ballpark. How many hits have they gotten in those 150 plate appearances? A measly 21, with only eight extra-base hits. They have struck out 31 times against only 18 walks in those situations. But wait, there's more.

In the late innings, when good teams are able to put together rallies to prevail in tight games, the Mets' bats go to sleep. Over the first six innings this season, the Mets have actually been quite respectable, hitting .265. They also have a .335 on-base percentage and a .419 slugging percentage from innings 1 through 6. However, over the final three innings, it's a completely different story (.201/.300/.325). Why is this so shocking? Because a starting pitcher usually contributes to lowering the batting avg./OBP/slugging pct. of his team during the first six innings of a ballgame. His spot is often taken by a pinch-hitter over the final three innings, a pinch-hitter who can usually be counted on to be a more productive hitter than the pitcher he's replacing in the batting order.

Of course, pinch-hitting has not been the Mets' forté this season, as substitutes have combined to hit .172 (16-for-93), have reached base at a .235 clip, and are slugging .258. Players such as Willie Harris, Scott Hairston and Chin-Lung Hu have yet the put the word "hitting" in pinch-hitting, as they have come off the bench to strike out 31 times while drawing only six walks.

This has become too familiar a sight at Citi Field this season.

So what does a first place team do with the bases loaded and some of the other situations discussed here? The Philadelphia Phillies have hit .300 (12-for-40) with the bags full this season. With runners on third base and less than two outs, they're hitting .299 with 50 RBI. They have 35 hits with runners on third base, including three home runs. And for all those who say "all they do is hit home runs", let it be known that as of today, both the Phillies and the Mets have hit exactly 28 home runs.

Yeah. That's what a first place team does at the plate when presented with favorable hitting situations. They don't strand runners on base. They move guys around. They make productive outs. They draw walks. They don't strike out, pop out or hit into inning-ending double plays. Last place teams do that. That's where the Mets are right now, and that's where they're going to stay if they don't start recognizing what needs to be done at the plate.

New Homestand, New Hope

After defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday night in an emotional extra-inning affair, the Mets return to Citi Field to begin a week-long homestand against the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although the Mets are still in last place with a 12-16 record, they're not as far out of contention as their record and division standing would suggest. In fact, parity in baseball has made fans in every major league city hold on to hopes of meaningful baseball games in the summer.

Because baseball doesn't have a salary cap, it's difficult to achieve parity. Usually the teams with the highest payrolls have the best chance to extend their seasons past 162 games. More often than not, these teams usually finish well above .500 and have a relatively simple time making their way to the postseason. However, in the early going this season, an overwhelming number of teams are right around the .500 mark.

As of today, only five teams in baseball are more than three games above .500. Those teams are the Indians (19-8), Marlins (18-9), Phillies (18-9), Rockies (17-9) and Yankees (17-9). With identical 16-13 records, the Angels, Rangers and Cardinals can all lay claim to having the sixth-best record in baseball.

Want more proof that there's parity in baseball? Of the 30 teams in the major leagues, a whopping 20 franchises (or two-thirds of all clubs) are between three games over .500 and four games under .500. At 12-16, the Mets are one of those 20 teams that are separated by a mere 3½ games.

Let's now focus strictly on the National League. As of now, only four NL teams have winning records (Marlins, Phillies, Rockies, Cardinals). The Mets have played three of these four teams (they don't play St. Louis until after the All-Star Break) and are a combined 4-9 against them. Against all other opponents, the Mets have a winning record (8-7). After 28 games, the Mets have played nearly half of their schedule against teams that have winning percentages above .650. What about those three .650+ teams? How have the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies racked up so many wins early on? A quick look at their early season schedules reveal quite a tale.

The Marlins have played 27 games, but only six of them have come against teams with winning records. The Phillies have also played 27 games, with only two of those games being played against above-.500 teams (they split those two games against the Marlins). Meanwhile, the Rockies have played three of their 26 games against a winning team, losing two of three to the Marlins.

That means the Mets have played more games against the "elite" teams in the National League (13) than the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have played combined (11). Of course the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have good records. They've feasted on the dregs of the National League!

In addition, neither one of those three teams has played more games on the road than at home. The Mets, on the other hand, have played 15 of their 28 games away from Citi Field.

Now the Mets come back home, where they won their last four ballgames before going 3-3 on their recent Washington/Philadelphia trip. They will be facing the Giants and the Dodgers, teams with a combined 28-30 record. Meanwhile, the Marlins will playing six of their next nine games against teams with winning records (Cardinals, Phillies), while the Phillies will be facing their first real test of the season, with series against the Marlins and three of the other five division leaders (Cardinals, Rangers, Rockies) over the next three weeks.

The Mets are in last place now, but they have the opportunity to make a statement this week at home against the Giants and Dodgers. Parity is the name of the game in the major leagues this season, and the teams that have risen above it have done so by taking advantage of their weak early season schedules. But all that is about to change in the next few weeks. Will the Mets be able to rise if the other teams fall? If they do, this week's homestand could give new hope for the team and its fans.

You Call This A Rivalry?

New York and Philadelphia are separated by less than 100 miles, making the Phillies the closest geographical rivals to the Mets in the National League. However, upon further inspection of the NL East standings over the past half-century, "rivals" might not be the correct word to use.

Since the Mets came into existence in 1962, both the Phillies and the Mets have finished with a winning record in the same season a mere eight times.

• 1975: Phillies (86-76, 2nd place); Mets (82-80, 3rd place)
• 1976: Phillies (101-61, 1st place); Mets (86-76, 3rd place)
• 1986: Mets (108-54, 1st place); Phillies (86-75, 2nd place)
• 2001: Phillies (86-76, 2nd place); Mets (82-80, 3rd place)
• 2005: Phillies (88-74, 2nd place); Mets (83-79, 3rd place)
• 2006: Mets (97-65, 1st place); Phillies (85-77, 2nd place)
• 2007: Phillies (89-73, 1st place); Mets (88-74, 2nd place)
• 2008: Phillies (92-70, 1st place); Mets (89-73, 2nd place)

Meanwhile, over the same time period, other well-known traditional rivals have had much more of a rivalry. Since 1962, the Red Sox and Yankees have both finished with winning records in the same season 30 times, including each of the last 13 seasons. The Dodgers and Giants have both been above .500 in the same season 22 times since 1962. Even the Cubs and Cardinals have both finished with winning records in the same season 14 times in the past half-century, which is remarkable considering that the Cubs have only had 18 winning seasons overall since 1962.

Prior to 2007, the Mets and Phillies never had a bonafide rivalry. Although the two teams finished in first and second place in the NL East in both 1986 and 2006, the Mets won the division handily each time. Not until the back-to-back collapses suffered by the Mets in 2007 and 2008 did the teams play for a division title. Unfortunately, those two seasons were the only two in which the Mets and Phillies had a legitimate rivalry in the standings, as the Phillies continued winning in 2009 and 2010, while the Mets forgot how to do so.

Therefore, although it is very early in the season, when the 3-1 Mets take on the 3-1 Phillies tonight at Citizens Bank Park, it will mark one of the few times over the past half-century that both teams have been in the top two positions in the NL East as they played each other.

It may be silly to say that tonight's game is a battle for first place, but why not say it? After all, battles for division supremacy between the Mets and the Phillies have been about as rare as the Cubs winning the World Series. But at least the Cubs have more of a rivalry with another divisional foe.

Enjoy seeing tonight's first place showdown between the Mets and the Phillies while you can. It might be the only time we can say that this season.

Are You Ready For Some Baseball?

The Mets will raise the curtain on their 2011 season tonight against the Florida Marlins, the team that finished ahead of them by one game in the 2010 National League East standings and won one too many games against them at the end of the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Despite the fact that most prognosticators (including this spherical one) have the Mets finishing around the .500 mark and no higher than third place, does that mean fans should give up on the season before the Opening Day player introductions are made?

Opening Day is the one day of the season when all teams are tied for first place, when every team believes this will be THEIR year. The Mets are no different. Why can't the Mets compete in the National League East or for the wild card? When the umpire tells the players to "play ball", is he writing it on paper? No, he is not. That's because the games aren't played on paper. So when everyone concedes the division to the Phillies and their R2C2 pitching staff (Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels), they're doing it because they're the sexiest team on paper. When so-called experts say teams like the Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Padres and Rockies are all going to be contending for the wild card (if not their division title) come September, they're doing so on the proverbial paper.

No one foresaw the San Francisco Giants winning the World Series last year. They had good pitching, but they still had an offense that rivaled the 2009 Mets in futility, at least from a power standpoint. During the season, their good pitching became great and their supposed lack of power produced eight players who finished in double digits in home runs. The same could be said for the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds hadn't made the playoffs since 1995 and hadn't been a serious contender since the Mets eliminated them in a one-game playoff for the 1999 National League wild card berth. They had good hitters, but atrocious pitching. How did people know this? Because they saw it "on paper". Naturally, Cincinnati won the National League Central because their good hitting became exceptional, led by NL MVP Joey Votto, and their so-called atrocious pitching was actually better than decent.

What teams look like on paper don't always represent what they look like between the foul lines. A team might have a great offense "on paper" and then sputter on the field (see 2008 Detroit Tigers). Similarly, a team might think they have the makings of a fantastic pitching staff "on paper", but once those pitchers step on the mound, they pitch like Charlie Brown. (Does Generation K ring a bell?)

So the Mets look like a team that will finish in the middle of pack or lower in the National League East. That's what people are saying right now. On paper. What if Jose Reyes reverts to his 2008 form, especially now that he's playing for a contract? What if Angel Pagan continues to improve in all aspects of his game and hits .300 with 15 HR and 40 SB, while winning the Gold Glove? What if Carlos Beltran stays on the field all season and plays like a man who's in his walk year? What if more of Ike Davis' bombs target the Shea Bridge and the Pepsi Porch? What if Jason Bay only misses one week and comes back as Jason Bay, pre-2010? What if R.A. Dickey wasn't a fluke and shows what he can do over a full season instead of just 26 starts as he did last season? What if the other members of the Brainy Bunch (Chris Young and Chris Capuano) give the Mets a combined 50 starts and pitch the way they're capable of pitching when they're healthy? And I haven't even mentioned Johan Santana...

On paper, the Mets probably can't compete with the Phillies and some of the wild card contenders. But when they take the field tonight against the Marlins, that paper will have found its way into the shredder. It won't matter what people think the Mets are going to do. The Mets will go as far as their players will take them. That's the beauty of baseball. Any team can surprise the experts, especially those experts with lifetime subscriptions to "the paper". Maybe it will be the Mets, maybe it'll be another team.

Don't give up hope just because some paper says we should. Just sit back, relax and enjoy watching the Mets as they try to make the authors of the paper eat their words.

Happy Opening Day, everyone!

National (Lack of) Pride

As first reported by Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, Oliver Perez has agreed to a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals. The signing comes two days after the Mets parted ways with the president of the Rick Vaughn Fan Club. Should he succeed (>snicker<) at AAA-Syracuse, Perez will get the opportunity to join a staff that features such stalwarts as Jason Marquis (2-9, 6.60 ERA) and produced only one starter with an ERA under 4.65 (Livan Hernandez, who went 10-12 with a 3.66 ERA).

If the recently impeached El Perez-idente "earns" a spot with the Nationals, Mets fans won't have to wait very long to boo him at Citi Field, as Washington will be the Mets' opponent when Citi Field opens its doors for the 2011 season on April 8. Since the Mets are still paying Ollie $12 million this year (minus the amount Washington is paying him), they might finally get their money's worth if Perez comes into the game and pitches like his normal self.

With the signing of Perez, Washington will no longer have to worry about people ridiculing them for giving former Phillies' rightfielder Jayson Werth $126 million over seven years. They will now have something else to be ridiculed for.

The Phillies signed Luis Castillo to a minor league contract earlier this week. Now the Nationals have signed Oliver Perez to a similar deal. The Mets' castoffs are finding new employers for their services (or what passes for services) without leaving the division. Does that mean the Braves will be signing Victor Zambrano next? Do the Marlins have an offer on the table for Kaz Matsui?

The Mets may or may not improve in the standings this year, but it sure feels a lot sunnier in the clubhouse now that the dark clouds have lifted. Let the Phillies and Nationals deal with Castillo and Perez. Who knows? Maybe they're better equipped to weather the storm. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were forced to order extra galoshes at some point this year.