One Season Wonders: Pedro Martinez

In 2004, the Mets finished below .500 for the third consecutive season.  Attendance at Shea Stadium, which had averaged 2.7 million from 1999-2002, had plummeted to an average of 2.2 million in 2003 and 2004.  With the Yankees winning six American League pennants and four World Series championships in less than a decade, baseball fans in New York were not exactly lining up to buy tickets to see the Mets.

The Mets needed to make a change for the better and they needed to do it fast if they wanted to remain relevant in their own city.  To effect this change, Mets' owner Fred Wilpon gave full autonomy to new general manager Omar Minaya.  It was up to the Queens-raised Minaya to turn the Mets into kings of the National League East.  Realizing he had just gotten the keys to the castle, Minaya wasted no time in his efforts to make the Mets matter again.

First, he hired Willie Randolph to take over for the dismissed Art Howe.  Then came the hard part.  In Randolph, the Mets had a leader in the dugout.  But they needed a leader on the field.  Jose Reyes and David Wright were still soiling their baseball diapers at the time, so they were not viable candidates.  Instead, Omar Minaya set his sights on one player.  He was looking for a respected veteran presence on the team who could also serve as their Pied Piper, leading other talent out of their cities and into Shea Stadium.

Just before the Winter Meetings, Minaya boarded a plane for the Dominican Republic, spending his Thanksgiving in Santo Domingo.  Soon after, Mets fans were the ones giving thanks.

With Pedro Martinez on board, the Mets were hoping to hitch a ride to first place.

Less than three weeks after spending his Thanksgiving in the Dominican Republic, Omar Minaya gave Mets fans an early Christmas gift, signing Pedro Martinez to a four-year, $53 million deal.  Martinez, who had just led the Boston Red Sox to their first World Series championship in 86 years, would immediately give the Mets credibility, as well as a reason for other free agents to come to New York.

Martinez spent seven years in Boston, dominating opposing batters in a way not seen since the days of Sandy Koufax.  From 1998-2004, Martinez went 117-37 with a 2.52 ERA.  He also averaged 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, leading the league in whiffs in four of his seven seasons with the Red Sox.  Despite his dominance, the Red Sox did not want to guarantee a fourth year to Pedro due to his injury history.  The Mets were not as timid.

With a bonafide ace to lead the pitching staff, the Mets expected the 2005 season to be different than their previous three campaigns.  But things didn't start off so well for Martinez in his first Opening Day assignment for the Mets, as Cincinnati's Adam Dunn hit a three-run homer in the bottom of the first inning to give the Reds the early lead.  Dunn's blast might have rattled an ordinary pitcher, but Pedro Martinez was no ordinary pitcher.  In fact, after the home run, the Mets got a taste of vintage Pedro, and what a fine vintage it was.

Martinez struck out nine of the next ten batters he faced, with only a third-inning walk to D'Angelo Jimenez on a 3-2 pitch preventing Pedro from tying Tom Seaver's major league record of ten consecutive strikeouts in one game.  But each strikeout made Martinez's pitch count rise near the triple digit mark.  By the end of the sixth inning, Martinez had fanned a dozen Cincinnati Reds, but had reached 103 pitches.  However, the Mets scored three runs in the seventh inning to take a 6-3 lead on the strength of Carlos Beltran's RBI single off former Met David Weathers (who was pitching in relief of another former Met, Paul Wilson) and Cliff Floyd's two-run homer off Kent Mercker.

With the Mets enjoying a three-run lead at the seventh inning stretch, manager Willie Randolph removed Pedro Martinez from the game, fully expecting his ace to come away with the victory.  But second-year closer Braden Looper blew the save in the ninth inning, allowing back-to-back homers to Adam Dunn and Joe Randa, with the latter blast coming in walk-off fashion.

Braden Looper had nowhere to hide after costing Pedro Martinez his first win as a Met.

Pedro Martinez was credited with a no-decision in his Opening Day start, a common occurrence throughout his first month and a half as a Met.  Over his first nine starts in 2005, Martinez was credited with four no-decisions, despite not allowing more than five hits in any of them.  Through May 22, Martinez was holding opposing hitters to a microscopic .155 batting average, but only had four wins to show for it.  That all changed in Pedro's next start.

On May 27, the Mets were once again hitting the snooze button instead of the baseball.  Brian Moehler started for the Florida Marlins against Pedro and the Mets that day.  This is the same Brian Moehler who was pitching for his fourth team in four years and had only won three games in the major leagues during his time as a baseball nomad.  Yet despite his recent lack of success, Moehler retired the first 11 batters he faced before allowing back-to-back doubles to Mike Cameron and Cliff Floyd.  Moehler then proceeded to retire 13 of the next 15 batters after the Mets had taken their 1-0 lead.  Faced with the daunting task of having to put up zeroes against the Marlins, Martinez accepted the challenge and put his teammates on his back, pitching eight shutout innings while striking out ten and walking no one.  This time, Braden Looper held the lead for Pedro and the Mets came away with a 1-0 victory.

Pedro's performance against the Marlins began a stretch in which he earned eight victories in 11 starts.  From May 27 to July 23, Martinez went 8-2 with a 2.51 ERA, striking out 74 batters and walking only 14.  During this two-month period, Martinez was selected for the National League All-Star team.  However, he did not play in the Midsummer Classic because he had pitched seven strong innings for the Mets in the last game before the break, a 6-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

After July 23, the combination of poor relief work and a sputtering offense contributed to another stretch where wins were scarce for Pedro Martinez.  In an eight-start stretch from late July to early September, Martinez held opposing batters to a .226 batting average and .283 on-base percentage.  He also allowed three runs or less in six of the eight starts, but was the winning pitcher in only one of those starts.  During that eight-start period, one game stood out in particular.  It was a game in which Pedro was on teetering on the edge of Mets' immortality, only to fall off with one swing of the bat.

On August 14, the Mets were playing the Dodgers in the rubber game of a three-game series.  Only three days earlier, Carlos Beltran and Mike Cameron were involved in a horrific outfield collision at Petco Park, ending Cameron's season and taking Beltran out of action for a week.  As a result, Gerald Williams was starting for Beltran in center field for Pedro's start at Dodger Stadium.  This would come into play late in the game.

The Mets broke a scoreless tie in the fifth inning on an RBI double by Williams.  Meanwhile, Pedro Martinez was nearly perfect, allowing a first-inning walk to Milton Bradley before retiring the next 20 batters to face him.  Up came Antonio Perez, who had amassed 97 career hits in three major league seasons prior to his eighth inning at-bat against Pedro.  Three pitches later, that total had gone up to 98.

On a 1-1 count, Perez drilled a triple to deep center.  It was the first hit for the Dodgers and the only hit Perez would ever record off Martinez.  The ball might have been catchable, but with Gerald Williams playing center instead of Carlos Beltran, it became an easy triple for Perez.  Interestingly enough, almost five years to the day before Williams failed to catch Perez's fly ball, he was involved in an on-field altercation with Pedro Martinez.

Did Gerald Williams remember this moment when he was "chasing" after Antonio Perez's fly ball?

Martinez, then with the Red Sox, hit Gerald Williams with a pitch in the first inning, causing him to charge the mound.  Williams and several of his Devil Ray teammates were ejected from the game, a game in which Pedro threw (you guessed it) a one-hit shutout.  Five years later, Gerald Williams was once again instrumental in a Pedro Martinez-pitched game that had become a one-hit shutout.  Unfortunately, the game would not end that way.  One batter after the no-hitter was gone, the shutout and the lead were also no more, as Jayson Werth (yes, THAT Jayson Werth) hit a two-run homer off Martinez to give the Dodgers a 2-1 lead.  The Mets, despite outhitting the Dodgers, 10-2, lost the game and the series, with Pedro Martinez picking up the hard-luck loss.

After the disappointing loss to the Dodgers, Martinez did not give up a run in each of his next two starts.  But just like in his Opening Day start, the bullpen failed to help Pedro get a win.  On August 20, Martinez left his start against the Washington Nationals with a seemingly insurmountable 8-0 lead.  But the bullpen coughed up the lead, allowing the Nats to tie the game at 8.  The Mets eventually won the game in extra innings, but Pedro once again failed to get a win.  He did get the win in his next start, throwing six shutout innings against the Arizona Diamondbacks.  But in his final August start, Martinez had one of his few poor performances of the 2005 season.

On August 31, Pedro Martinez took the hill against the Phillies with a chance to pitch the Mets into the wild card lead.  Just one night before, the Mets had pulled to within half a game of the wild card on a late home run by Ramon Castro.  But with the Mets holding on to a slim 2-1 lead in the fifth inning, it wasn't the bullpen that cost Pedro the win.  It was Pedro himself, as the Phillies took the right-hander deep four times en route to an 8-2 victory at Shea Stadium.

Although the Mets failed to make a run at the wild card in September, Pedro Martinez continued to chug along.  After allowing four home runs to the Phillies in his final August start, Martinez did not allow a single home run in the month of September, recording a 2.25 ERA during the season's final month, a month that featured a complete-game, ten-strikeout gem against the division champion Braves on September 16 for his 15th and final win of the season.

Pedro Martinez helped bring other winners to New York, but had difficulty getting wins of his own.

The Mets finished the 2005 season with an 83-79 record, a 12-win improvement over their 2004 campaign.  Pedro Martinez's first year in New York was an overwhelming success, as the right-hander went 15-8 with a 2.82 ERA and 208 strikeouts.  The following year, Pedro started the season by winning each of his first five starts, giving fans hope that the best was yet to come.  Although the Mets had a memorable season in 2006, this time Pedro Martinez had very little to do with it.  In fact, he had very little to do with anything over the final three years of his four-year deal.

Following his 5-0 start to the 2006 season, Martinez won a total of 12 games for the Mets until his contract expired following the 2008 campaign.  This was mostly due to the ever-present injury bug; the same bug that scared Boston away from offering him a fourth year.  Because of this bug, Pedro was not able to pitch for the Mets in the 2006 playoffs, as well as most of the 2007 and 2008 seasons.  His 12-15 record and 5.00 ERA following the first month of the 2006 season was hardly what the Mets expected from the former Cy Young Award winner, and certainly not worthy of the tens of millions of dollars he was being paid by the team.  Upon the completion of the 2008 season, Martinez was not re-signed by the Mets and did not pitch again in the major leagues until the second half of the 2009 season, when the Phillies took a chance on him.  Naturally, Pedro went 5-1 for the defending World Series champions and helped them win a second consecutive National League pennant.

Pedro Martinez came to the Mets in 2005 with a big contract and a history of success in the major leagues.  In his first year in New York, he helped the Mets end a streak of three consecutive losing seasons, giving them hope that better days were still to come.  Although the Mets did win the division title in 2006 and narrowly missed the playoffs in 2007 and 2008, their success was due more to the players that followed Pedro to New York and not Pedro himself.

In 2005, the Mets paid Pedro Martinez $53 million to be a four-year wonder.  Instead, they got a one-year wonder and a total of 17 wins over the remaining three years.  Pedro was supposed to lead the Mets to a World Series title.  Instead, his former team accomplished the feat during the third year of his contract with the Mets.  With most one-season wonders, the Mets would be very happy with what they got.  Unfortunately, with Pedro Martinez, the Mets felt like they were short-changed.  There's nothing wonderful about that.


Note: One Season Wonders is a thirteen-part weekly series spotlighting those Mets who had one and only one memorable season in New York.  For previous installments, please click on the players' names below:
 
January 2, 2012: Bernard Gilkey
January 9, 2012: Terry Leach 
January 16, 2012: George Stone
January 23, 2012: Roger Cedeño
January 30, 2012: Frank Viola
February 6, 2012: Joe Christopher 
February 13, 2012: Dave Magadan

17 Games Left: Third Is The Word

With today's loss to the Cubs, the Mets fell to 71-74 on the season.  They remain two thousand games behind the first place Phillies (that will change after tonight's Phillies-Brewers matchup has been completed) and a few hundred games behind the wild card-leading Braves (also pending tonight's game).  However, they do remain four games ahead of the fourth place Nationals and 5½ games in front of the lowly Marlins.

So the question is not whether the Mets can catch the Braves for the wild card or cut the Phillies' lead in the NL East to one thousand games (even though a three-game sweep of Philadelphia in two weeks would certainly help), it's whether or not the Mets can forget that there are 17 games left in the season and hold off the Nats and Fish to finish higher than fourth place for the first time since moving across the parking lot to Citi Field.

The 2007 and 2008 Mets famously went 5-12 and 7-10, respectively, in their final 17 games to lose their not-so-firm grip on first place and the wild card, failing to make the playoffs each year.  The 2009 Mets also went 7-10 in their final 17 games, but managed to hold off the Washington Nationals in their quest for fourth place in the NL East (mission accomplished - yes!)

Last year's team was 72-73 at the 145-game mark, as they were duking it out with the Marlins for third place.  They then proceeded to go (you guessed it) 7-10 in their final 17 games, finishing in fourth place, a game behind the Marlins, but at least ahead of the last place Nats.

So what can we expect the Mets to do this year now that they've reached the dreaded "17 to play" mark of the season?

For one thing, the Mets have what should be a comfortable lead in the NL East over the Nationals and Marlins.  But then again, being four games up on Washington doesn't guarantee anything.  The Nationals still have something to play for.  Since moving to Washington from Montreal following the 2004 season, the Nats have finished last in every year but one (2007, when they finished two games ahead of the cellar-dwelling Marlins).  With the potential for their highest finish in the NL East, the Nationals will surely be playing hard over their final 17 games.  The Marlins, on the other hand, just lost six games over the past two weeks to the Mets.  The demons of 2007 and 2008 have been exorcised and the Marlins should pose no threat to the Mets over their final 17 games (we hope).

A quick look at my once shiny, now falling apart Mets pocket schedule reveals that the Mets will be playing a four-game series with the fourth place (and hungry) Nationals next week at Citi Field.  The Mets cannot lose this series if a) they want to finish .500 or better and 2) they don't want to choke away third place to Jayson Werth and his cohorts.  They must split this series at the very least.  Taking three of four would all but eliminate the Nats from third place contention and a four-game sweep plus drilling Werth in his $126 million @$$ would be the cherry on top of the mediocre sundae.

It would behoove the Mets to do well against Washington because after that series, the Mets will be playing the wild card-leading Braves in Atlanta (they have a worse winning percentage at Turner Field than the Washington Generals have against the Harlem Globetrotters), followed by a trip to St. Louis against the somehow-still-in-it Cardinals, and topped off with a three-game set against the team with the best record in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies, who somehow are on their way to the best record in franchise history, even without the aforementioned Jayson Werth (guess their key off-season acquisition of Juan Samuel to be their third base coach really panned out for them).

Should the Mets falter against the Braves, Cardinals and Phillies, they'll need to sweep the Reds at Citi Field to close out the regular season to have any realistic hope of finishing ahead of the Nationals for third place.  The lowly Reds surely remember the Mets' first-ever four-game sweep in Cincinnati a few months ago, so they will not be an easy opponent, despite what the won-loss records say.

The Mets have gone 7-10 over their final 17 games in each of the last three seasons (and it's four out of five seasons if you go back to 2006; even that team went 7-10 over their final 17 regular season games).  Doing the same this year would produce a 78-84 record, a one-game dropoff from their 2010 final record.  It would also put them in jeopardy of being passed by the Washington Nationals for third place in the NL East.  Finishing .500 or better should be the ultimate goal for this year's Mets, but finishing in third place is the more likely (and attainable) goal.  It's time to show the rest of the National League East (meaning those teams not named Los Phillies or Los Braves) that this Mets team has had enough of late-season chokes and fourth place finishes.  Say it loud and say it proud!  Third is the word!  And nothing else will be acceptable!

National (Lack of) Pride

As first reported by Tim Brown of Yahoo! Sports, Oliver Perez has agreed to a minor league deal with the Washington Nationals. The signing comes two days after the Mets parted ways with the president of the Rick Vaughn Fan Club. Should he succeed (>snicker<) at AAA-Syracuse, Perez will get the opportunity to join a staff that features such stalwarts as Jason Marquis (2-9, 6.60 ERA) and produced only one starter with an ERA under 4.65 (Livan Hernandez, who went 10-12 with a 3.66 ERA).

If the recently impeached El Perez-idente "earns" a spot with the Nationals, Mets fans won't have to wait very long to boo him at Citi Field, as Washington will be the Mets' opponent when Citi Field opens its doors for the 2011 season on April 8. Since the Mets are still paying Ollie $12 million this year (minus the amount Washington is paying him), they might finally get their money's worth if Perez comes into the game and pitches like his normal self.

With the signing of Perez, Washington will no longer have to worry about people ridiculing them for giving former Phillies' rightfielder Jayson Werth $126 million over seven years. They will now have something else to be ridiculed for.

The Phillies signed Luis Castillo to a minor league contract earlier this week. Now the Nationals have signed Oliver Perez to a similar deal. The Mets' castoffs are finding new employers for their services (or what passes for services) without leaving the division. Does that mean the Braves will be signing Victor Zambrano next? Do the Marlins have an offer on the table for Kaz Matsui?

The Mets may or may not improve in the standings this year, but it sure feels a lot sunnier in the clubhouse now that the dark clouds have lifted. Let the Phillies and Nationals deal with Castillo and Perez. Who knows? Maybe they're better equipped to weather the storm. But I wouldn't be surprised if they were forced to order extra galoshes at some point this year.

From Angel Pagan's Mouth To God's Ears

Angel Pagan might have been heaven sent over the past two seasons, but now he seems to have his head up in the clouds. According to today's Daily News, Anthony McCarron reports that the outfielder still believes the Mets can compete with the Phillies for the NL East division title, despite the fact that the Mets have done very little to upgrade the team during the offseason, while the Phillies now have the Four Horsemen in their rotation with the December acquisition of Cliff Lee. Pagan goes on to say the following:

"If we have health, we can give them a fight. Everyone is counting on Philadelphia, but they have to do it. I got my money on my team, bro. I love challenges and that's why I'm looking forward to it. I believe in surprises."

We all know Angel Pagan is not going to say that the Mets' goal for the 2011 season is to hold off the Washington Nationals for fourth place, especially now that Jayson Werth is there because he wants to win. But to say that the Mets can be part of the same stratosphere that the Phillies currently inhabit, although commendable for its optimistic perspective, is a little bit of a stretch.

Has Angel Pagan become aware of a top secret radical realignment plan by Bud Selig that would put the Mets in the NFC West for the 2011 season? If so, will Carlos Beltran be assessed a 15-yard penalty the next time he tries to take out Chase Utley at second base with a hard slide? Does R.A. Dickey have to trade in his Thesaurus for shoulder pads? Will Ruben Tejada be declared ineligible because he isn't three years removed from his high school days?

I'm sure there's a player on the Pirates who believes his team is going to win the NL Central, when the more realistic goal should be to just finish at .500. That's something the Bucs haven't done since 1992, when Barry Bonds* was a skinny MVP candidate who was feared on the bases and Bobby Bonilla still wasn't collecting his Millionaire For Life winnings from the Mets.

For now, getting over .500 would be a good start for the Mets. If they go from 79-83 to 83-79, that would be a good stepping stone. The 2005 Mets improved to 83-79 after suffering through three consecutive losing seasons. The year after their rise above .500, they went to the postseason. The 2011 Mets can plant the seeds that will begin to bloom in 2012. Angel Pagan shouldn't expect the moon this year. But he can be a part of the team that gets blasted off in 2011, with the potential to land in the playoffs in the coming years.

It's one thing to expect great things for your team, but it's another thing to say that the Mets are ready to compete with the team that finished with the best record in the National League in 2010, a team whose victory total has improved every year since 2006. The Phillies have their own version of the Fantastic Four (with Cole Hamels playing the role of the Invisible Woman), while the Mets have their Fantastic One (Johan Santana) out for a big chunk of the season.

Angel Pagan should just concentrate on being the best player he can be, giving 100% on the field, and not making 100% unreasonable predictions off the field. With Sandy Alderson having a definite plan on how to improve the team without doling out contracts that come back to bite him in the Bor-a$$, the competitive team Pagan wants will be there eventually. Just don't expect it to be an overnight success.

The Seven Year Pitch

Jayson Werth just signed a seven-year deal with the Washington Nationals. Cliff Lee is looking for a seven-year deal as well, with the Nationals perhaps willing to give it to him. Players have always been attracted to the almighty dollar at free agent time, but now more than ever, the length of the contract is becoming as important, if not more important, than the number of digits next to the dollar sign.

But is this the right way to go for the teams throwing all that cash on the table? And should they be giving these contracts to players on the wrong side of age 30? Recent history says no.

Remember Mike Hampton? He was the pitcher who was traded by the Astros to the Mets following the 1999 season, a year in which he went 22-4 for Houston. Hampton helped lead the Mets to the World Series, but then left New York for (as he put it) the better school systems in Colorado. The Mets were willing to give him a lucrative deal, but the Rockies were the ones offering the security of an eight-year contract.

The left-handed Hampton left New York after one season, went to Colorado, and watched his talent dissipate in Denver's thin air. During the eight years of his contract (split between Colorado and Atlanta), Hampton won a grand total of 56 games with an ERA of 4.81. But at least his kids benefited from the superior Denver school system.


Hampton is not the only player in recent years to have signed a deal of seven years or more who didn't live up to his contract. In fact, several others have taken a stretch of success, turned it into a long-term contract and then laughed all the way to the bank while his production suffered. Check out what these players did prior to their big paydays followed by their production after they put their John Hancocks on their contracts.


Kevin Brown

• 1996: 17-11, 1.89 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 159 Ks
• 1997: 16-8, 2.69 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 205 Ks
• 1998: 18-7, 2.38 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 257 Ks

Kevin Brown signed a seven-year, $105 million contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 1999 season. His first three years in LA were very good, as he went 41-19 with a 2.77 ERA. Once he entered the middle year of his contract, he became more brittle and his performance suffered, culminating with his trade to the Yankees following the 2003 season.

Over the last four years of his contract, Brown won only 31 games and his ERA went up by more than one run (3.81). In the final season of his contract, he was a shadow of himself, going 4-7 with a 6.50 ERA. The once-dominant pitcher who always had a high strikeout total and low ERA actually allowed more earned runs (53) than had strikeouts (50) in his final major league season.



Ken Griffey, Jr.

• 1996: .303, 49 HR, 140 RBI, 125 runs scored
• 1997: .304, 56 HR, 147 RBI, 125 runs scored
• 1998: .284, 56 HR, 146 RBI, 120 runs scored
• 1999: .285, 48 HR, 134 RBI, 123 runs scored

The man known as The Kid was already the most popular athlete in baseball in the late '90s, despite playing in the relative obscurity of Seattle. But when his contract expired after the 1999 season, he wanted to go back home. So he left the Pacific Northwest and signed a nine-year, $116.5 million contract to play for the Cincinnati Reds.

His first season in the Queen City wasn't as eye-popping as his last four years in Seattle, but how can anyone be disappointed with a .271 batting average, 40 HR, 118 RBI and 100 runs scored? Unfortunately, that was the best performance he was able to give the Reds.

Following the 2000 season, injury after injury befell The Kid and he was never the same player. Over the last eight years of his contract, Griffey missed a total of 455 games (or the equivalent of nearly three full seasons). He averaged 22 HR and 63 RBI over those seasons, to go with a .269 batting average. When he returned to Seattle to finish out his career, he could barely reach the Mendoza Line, hitting .208 in his final season and a half with the Mariners.



Jason Giambi

• 1999: .315, 33 HR, 123 RBI, 115 runs scored
• 2000: .333, 43 HR, 137 RBI, 108 runs scored
• 2001: .342, 38 HR, 120 RBI, 109 runs scored

With those three dominant seasons in Oakland, you knew the Yankees were going to open up their wallets for Giambi once he became a free agent. And that's exactly what they did when they signed the Giambino for seven years at $120 million.

His first year in pinstripes was as good as his last three years in Oakland, as Giambi finished the 2002 season with a .314 batting average, to go with his 41 HR and 122 RBI. His power was still there in 2003 (41 HR, 107 RBI), but his batting average plummeted to .250. The downward trend in batting average continued throughout the rest of his Yankee career. Over the final five years of his contract, Giambi hit .247. He never hit 40 HR again and only had one other 100 RBI season (2006).


What do Kevin Brown, Ken Griffey Jr. and Jason Giambi all have in common besides their poor production after signing their lucrative long-term deals? They were all in their 30s when they signed their contracts.

Kevin Brown did not throw his first pitch as a Dodger until he was 34. Ken Griffey, Jr. was no longer a spry youth when he signed with Cincinnati as a 30-year-old. Jason Giambi put on the Yankee pinstripes for the first time when he was 31.

What about Mike Hampton? Well, he was the baby of the group, as he signed his eight-year deal with Colorado at the age of 28. However, his contract lasted until he was 36, putting him in his 30s for the majority of the deal.

I haven't even mentioned the most recent disappointment signed to a long-term deal, and it's better if we don't say too much about him. After all, Barry Zito might have become a member of the Mets pitching staff in 2007, but the front office was smart enough not to offer him the seven-year deal that he eventually received from the San Francisco Giants.

Like Hampton, the left-handed Zito was 28 when he crossed the Bay Bridge from Oakland to San Francisco. Once he left the East Bay, the Barry Zito that won 102 games in seven years as an Oakland Athletic disappeared into the San Francisco fog.

Zito has yet to post a winning record in any of his four seasons in San Francisco. His 17 losses led the National League in 2008 and his continued subpar performances led the Giants to leave him off the postseason roster in 2010. They spent $126 million in the hopes that Barry Zito would help them win a championship and in 2010, they won that championship without him.

If that $126 million figure given to Barry Zito over seven years sounds familiar to you, it should. That's the same amount of money and years that the Nationals just gave to Jayson Werth, the man without a 100 RBI season and whose only All-Star Game appearance came as a result of an injury to Mets centerfielder Carlos Beltran in 2009.

It should be noted that Jayson Werth is 31. Cliff Lee, who is also looking for a seven-year deal, is 32. The seven year pitch has become quite popular with today's aging stars. Some owners are still crazy enough to dole out these long-term deals. However, if they all just studied the recent history of baseball and similar contracts, they'd know that seven is not always a lucky number, especially with players past their prime.

Jayson's Not Werth-y Of His New Contract

Wayne and Garth wouldn't bow down to him, so why did the Nationals do so when they signed Jayson Werth to a seven-year, $126 million deal? In a recently announced deal, the 31-year-old Werth left the supercharged offense of the Phillies to become the main man in the Adam Dunn-less Nationals lineup, where he and Ryan Zimmerman will be the main power threats in a not-so-cozy ballpark.

Let's analyze this from a Mets standpoint. Prior to the 2005 season, the Mets signed Carlos Beltran to a seven-year, $119 million contract. The deal was signed after Beltran completed a phenomenal season split between the Kansas City Royals and the Houston Astros, a season in which he picked up 38 HR and 42 SB. His power/speed numbers weren't the only thing that made him so desirable.

Beltran was also a consistent run producer for Royals and Astros, scoring and driving in 100+ runs in each of the four seasons prior to his mega-deal with the Mets. Here are Beltran's numbers from 2001-2004, the four-year stretch before he became a Met:

• 2001: .306, 24 HR, 101 RBI, 106 runs, 31 SB, 120 Ks
• 2002: .273, 29 HR, 105 RBI, 114 runs, 35 SB, 135 Ks
• 2003: .307, 26 HR, 100 RBI, 102 runs, 41 SB, 81 Ks
• 2004: .267, 38 HR, 104 RBI, 121 runs, 42 SB, 101 Ks

For the four years, Beltran averaged .288, 29 HR, 102 RBI, 111 runs, 37 SB and 109 Ks. Jayson Werth became a full-time player in 2008. Let's see what he's done over the past three seasons.

• 2008: .273, 24 HR, 67 RBI, 73 runs, 20 SB, 119 Ks
• 2009: .268, 36 HR, 99 RBI, 98 runs, 20 SB, 156 Ks
• 2010: .296, 27 HR, 85 RBI, 106 runs, 13 SB, 147 Ks

In the three seasons since Werth became an everyday player for the Phillies, he has averaged .279, 29 HR, 84 RBI, 92 runs, 18 SB and 141 Ks. He has never hit .300 or driven in 100 runs over a full season. Meanwhile, Beltran hit over .300 twice in the four year period prior to being acquired by the Mets and drove in 100 runs EVERY YEAR in that time period.

Think about that. Werth, who hit in a lineup featuring Jimmy Rollins, Shane Victorino, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, still couldn't pick up a 100 RBI season. Beltran was constantly driving in Kansas City Royals players. Luis Castillo could get 100 RBI on the Phillies and Jayson Werth couldn't?

How can any team pay Jayson Werth $18 million per season for what he did in that Philadelphia lineup? Do they really expect him to repeat those numbers in a bigger home ballpark with a less than star-studded cast surrounding him?

Then there's the seven years. The Mets are regretting the length of Beltran's contract now, as he has constantly been getting injured and at his age (he'll be 34 in April), he has become practically untradeable. When Werth turns 34, he will only be in the third year of his contract, which will not expire until the year he turns 38.

A 7-year, $126 million is not unprecedented in baseball. Barry Zito signed that same deal with the San Francisco Giants prior to the 2007 season. He has been nothing but a disappointment since then. One other thing about that deal - Zito was only 28 when he became a Giant.

Congratulations to the Washington Nationals for swooping in and getting Jayson Werth when no one expected them to. Let's see if they can be as fortunate when they try to trade him in a few years after realizing that they overpaid for a player who was never Werth it.