New Homestand, New Hope

After defeating the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday night in an emotional extra-inning affair, the Mets return to Citi Field to begin a week-long homestand against the San Francisco Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers. Although the Mets are still in last place with a 12-16 record, they're not as far out of contention as their record and division standing would suggest. In fact, parity in baseball has made fans in every major league city hold on to hopes of meaningful baseball games in the summer.

Because baseball doesn't have a salary cap, it's difficult to achieve parity. Usually the teams with the highest payrolls have the best chance to extend their seasons past 162 games. More often than not, these teams usually finish well above .500 and have a relatively simple time making their way to the postseason. However, in the early going this season, an overwhelming number of teams are right around the .500 mark.

As of today, only five teams in baseball are more than three games above .500. Those teams are the Indians (19-8), Marlins (18-9), Phillies (18-9), Rockies (17-9) and Yankees (17-9). With identical 16-13 records, the Angels, Rangers and Cardinals can all lay claim to having the sixth-best record in baseball.

Want more proof that there's parity in baseball? Of the 30 teams in the major leagues, a whopping 20 franchises (or two-thirds of all clubs) are between three games over .500 and four games under .500. At 12-16, the Mets are one of those 20 teams that are separated by a mere 3½ games.

Let's now focus strictly on the National League. As of now, only four NL teams have winning records (Marlins, Phillies, Rockies, Cardinals). The Mets have played three of these four teams (they don't play St. Louis until after the All-Star Break) and are a combined 4-9 against them. Against all other opponents, the Mets have a winning record (8-7). After 28 games, the Mets have played nearly half of their schedule against teams that have winning percentages above .650. What about those three .650+ teams? How have the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies racked up so many wins early on? A quick look at their early season schedules reveal quite a tale.

The Marlins have played 27 games, but only six of them have come against teams with winning records. The Phillies have also played 27 games, with only two of those games being played against above-.500 teams (they split those two games against the Marlins). Meanwhile, the Rockies have played three of their 26 games against a winning team, losing two of three to the Marlins.

That means the Mets have played more games against the "elite" teams in the National League (13) than the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have played combined (11). Of course the Marlins, Phillies and Rockies have good records. They've feasted on the dregs of the National League!

In addition, neither one of those three teams has played more games on the road than at home. The Mets, on the other hand, have played 15 of their 28 games away from Citi Field.

Now the Mets come back home, where they won their last four ballgames before going 3-3 on their recent Washington/Philadelphia trip. They will be facing the Giants and the Dodgers, teams with a combined 28-30 record. Meanwhile, the Marlins will playing six of their next nine games against teams with winning records (Cardinals, Phillies), while the Phillies will be facing their first real test of the season, with series against the Marlins and three of the other five division leaders (Cardinals, Rangers, Rockies) over the next three weeks.

The Mets are in last place now, but they have the opportunity to make a statement this week at home against the Giants and Dodgers. Parity is the name of the game in the major leagues this season, and the teams that have risen above it have done so by taking advantage of their weak early season schedules. But all that is about to change in the next few weeks. Will the Mets be able to rise if the other teams fall? If they do, this week's homestand could give new hope for the team and its fans.

An Amazin'ly Stupid Article In Today's NY Post

Normally, I have a lot of respect for New York Post sportswriter Phil Mushnick. For years, his columns have been among the first I turn to whenever I buy the Post. But today, I feel like he gave the Mets a cheap shot without doing any research on the topic he was blasting them for.

In his weekly Sunday feature, Equal Time, Phil Mushnick discusses the scheduling of an April night game at Citi Field. You can read the entire article here, but if your link-clicking finger is on the disabled list, I will copy and paste the article below. The title of the post is "April Night Game is Amazin'ly Stupid":

"The Mets' 2011 schedule perfectly fits the Bud Selig Era.

For example, if logic were applied what time would you schedule a home game against Washington on Saturday, April 9th? Early afternoon, 1 p.m., right? It's a night game. A night game on Saturday, April 9th. Now get this: Starting May 14 through Sept. 10, the Mets are not scheduled to play an early afternoon Saturday game, not home or away. There are a few 4:10 starts for FOX, but the rest are night games. Not even one traditional (sensible) 1 p.m. Saturday start for 18 consecutive Saturdays!"

Although scheduling a Saturday night game for early April in a cold weather city is unusual, there is a simple reason for this.

Look at the date. It's Saturday, April 9. When is Opening Day at Citi Field? Friday, April 8. Most teams schedule a day off after their home opener. They do this because Opening Day is usually the only game they can count on to be a sellout. Therefore, if the game is postponed because of poor weather, the game can be made up the following day, where it would still be the home opener and the team can still capitalize from the expected high attendance. Without that day off after Opening Day, the league would have to make the game up as part of an in-season doubleheader or find a mutual day off for the two teams to play the game.

Attendance at makeup games is usually far below sellout status. With attendance at Citi Field dropping in 2010, any game that has the potential to be a sellout becomes quite important to the team from a financial standpoint. Other than the Subway Series games against the Yankees, Opening Day might be the only guaranteed sellout at Citi Field in 2011.

However, with the league deciding to move away from its usual Monday Opening Day, the Mets will now be opening up the season in Florida on Friday, April 1. Their home opener is scheduled for one week later, also on a Friday. Scheduling a day off after the home opener would create a Saturday without a baseball game at Citi Field. Since teams always play on the weekends (the majority of scheduled off-days are on Monday or Thursday), the Mets would not be able to schedule an off-day on Saturday, April 9.

Therefore, the Mets had to make their first Saturday game at Citi Field a night game. In the event that the home opener is rained out (or snowed out), the game would more than likely be made up as part of a day-night doubleheader the following day (Saturday, April 9). The regularly scheduled night game would go on as scheduled at 7:10pm, but the rescheduled home opener would be played during the day on Saturday. It would still be the first home game of the season for the Mets, maintaining its Opening Day status, and would still attract a sellout crowd.

Had Phil Mushnick put some thought into his article before writing it, he would have realized what took me just a few minutes to explain. The Mets are not Amazin'ly stupid for scheduling a night game on April 9. They're actually doing the right thing, from both a business standpoint and for the sake of the fans who still want to go to Opening Day. It's too bad Mushnick couldn't do the right thing before submitting his article.