So here we are on the off day between Games 5 and 6 of the National League Championship Series, with the St. Louis Cardinals leading the series, three games to two, over the Milwaukee Brewers. With one victory over the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Cardinals will win their 18th National League pennant and advance to the World Series to face the winner of the Detroit-Texas ALCS.
As we wait for Game 6 on Sunday, I can't help but think that something is very familiar about this NLCS. Repressed memories from five years ago are suddenly finding their way back into my consciousness, as the clouds that hid the nightmares of October 2006 are now lifting away. Oh, yes. The Cardinals have done this before.
It's not Halloween yet, but this picture always gives me nightmares.
In 2006, St. Louis didn't clinch a playoff berth until their final regular season game, taking the NL Central when the Astros lost to the Atlanta Braves. This year, the Cardinals clinched the NL wild card berth on the final day of the regular season after they Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Atlanta Braves in Game No. 162.
The San Diego Padres repeated as NL West champions in 2006 and held home field advantage over the Cardinals in the NLDS. But St. Louis dispatched of the Padres in the Division Series and went on to face the 97-win Mets in the NLCS. In 2011, Philadelphia repeated as NL East champions and held the home field edge over St. Louis, but the Cardinals knocked the Phillies out of the playoffs and advanced to the NLCS to face the 96-win Milwaukee Brewers.
The Mets finished the 2006 season with the best home record in the National League, going 50-31 at Shea Stadium during the regular season and winning all of their home games in the NLDS. The Brewers ended the 2011 season with the best home record in the major leagues, finishing with a 57-24 regular season mark at Miller Park, before winning all three of their home games in the Division Series.
The Mets won Game 1 of the 2006 NLCS over the Cardinals, but lost the second game at home, sending the series back to St. Louis in a 1-1 tie. The Brewers took Game 1 of the 2011 NLCS against the Cardinals, but lost Game 2 at home as the series shifted back to St. Louis all even at one.
St. Louis scored early and often against the Mets in Game 3 of the 2006 NLCS, pushing across five runs in the first two innings. They would not score again after the second inning, but were able to hold on to win the game and take a two games to one edge in the series. In Game 3 of the 2011 NLCS, the Cardinals scored four runs in the first inning against Milwaukee and did not score again. However, that early outburst was all they needed, as they fought off the pesky Brew Crew and took a 2-1 lead in the series.
In 2006, the Mets stormed back in St. Louis to take Game 4, evening up the series at two games apiece and guaranteeing themselves a trip back to New York. Milwaukee recovered from their two straight losses in 2011, defeating St. Louis in Game 4 to knot up their series and assuring themselves of a return trip to Milwaukee.
Hoping to come back to Shea Stadium with the series lead, the Mets fell to the Cardinals in the critical Game 5. For all the success the Mets had at Shea Stadium, they would need to win two consecutive games there to win the 2006 National League pennant. Fresh off their series-tying victory, the Brewers lost to St. Louis in Game 5 of the 2011 NLCS, putting them in a similar position where they would have to win two games at home to advance to the World Series.
Now do you see why this year's National League Championship Series is reminiscent of the events in 2006? Of course, the Mets went on to win Game 6 of the 2006 NLCS at Shea Stadium before losing the seventh and deciding game, becoming the first team since the 1975 Boston Red Sox to lose a Game 7 at home after winning Game 6 there.
The end result of the 2006 NLCS was heartbreaking to Mets fans, but this play gave us all hope.
History has repeated itself throughout late September and early October for the St. Louis Cardinals this year. Heck, even the Detroit Tigers are two wins away from the World Series. If you recall, after eliminating the Mets in Game 7 of the 2006 NLCS, the Cardinals went on to defeat those same Detroit Tigers to win their tenth World Series championship.
Contrary to everything I've led you to believe in this post, I don't believe in deja vu. But if Ryan Braun or Prince Fielder takes a called third strike against Jason Motte in the ninth inning of Game 7 of this year's NLCS, I may have to change my mind, especially since Motte wasn't even the closer for the Cardinals until September, which is the same month Adam Wainwright took over closing duties in 2006.
Uh, okay. Maybe there is something to this deja vu thing after all.
When you say the words "Game 6" to any Mets fan, immediately their thoughts turn to the 1986 World Series. You can't blame those fans for thinking of that memorable game first. After all, the game in which Mookie Wilson hit a "little roller up along first" was voted by Mets fans as the most memorable moment in Mets history.
But that wasn't the only memorable Game 6 for the Mets that season. If not for the events of "the other Game 6", there might not have been a chance for Mookie Wilson and Bill Buckner to etch their names in the memories of millions of Mets fans. That first Game 6 was played in the Astrodome in Houston and it took place 25 years ago today.
After playing a 12-inning classic in New York the previous afternoon, the Mets and Astros traveled to Houston to play their second day game in 24 hours on October 15, 1986. The two teams normally would have had the day off before Game 6, but a rainout on October 13 forced them to sacrifice their travel day and play the extra-inning affair at Shea Stadium on the 14th. The game was won by the Mets, 2-1, when Wally Backman scored from second on a Gary Carter single.
Both teams were exhausted when they took the field for the 3 o'clock (Central Time) game, and rightfully so. Unfortunately for the Mets, the Astros woke up from their slumber early in Game 6, scoring three runs off Bob Ojeda in the first inning. The damage could have been worse, but Kevin Bass (more on him later) was tagged out by Ojeda trying to scamper home on a failed double steal attempt. Even with Bass' baserunning blunder, the Astros still held a 3-0 lead after one inning for starter Bob Knepper.
Remember this play. It ended up being huge 15 innings later.
Knepper, who was in line for the win in Game 3 before Lenny Dykstra took Astros' closer Dave Smith deep in the bottom of the ninth, was dominant over the first eight innings of Game 6. He faced the minimum three batters in seven of the eight innings, allowing only two hits and walking one. The Mets were three outs away from a potential Game 7 matchup against Mike Scott, who had confounded them in Games 1 and 4. The first batter in the ninth inning was pinch-hitter Lenny Dykstra. In Game 3, Dykstra waited until Knepper was out of the game before delivering his big ninth inning hit. This time, he didn't have to wait, driving a 1-2 offering from the Astros' southpaw to deep center field for a leadoff triple. It all went downhill for Knepper and the Astros from there.
The next batter was Mookie Wilson, who hit a soft line drive on an 0-2 pitch that fell in for a run-scoring single. Before you could say Dickie Thon, the Mets were on the scoreboard and the tying run was at the plate in Kevin Mitchell. The Mets' rookie utility man grounded out, but in the process moved Wilson to second base. Up came Keith Hernandez, who had gone 0-for-3 with a strikeout against Knepper. Four pitches later, that oh-fer was no more.
Hernandez doubled to deep center off Knepper, scoring Wilson from second base and cutting the Astros' lead to one. In doing so, Mex became the second lefty to collect an extra-base hit against Knepper in the ninth after the Mets' left-handed hitters had gone 0-for-7 against him through the first eight innings. That was the end of Knepper's day, as he was removed from the game after throwing 101 pitches. Knepper was replaced by Dave Smith, the salt-and-pepper haired reliever who had been tormented by the Mets all season.
Although Smith had an outstanding campaign in 1986, making his first All-Star team and finishing the year with 33 saves and a 2.73 ERA, the Mets were never intimidated by him. Smith faced the Mets three times during the regular season, allowing five runs and eight baserunners (four hits, three walks and one hit batsman) in three innings. That continued in the postseason, as Smith allowed the game-winning two-run homer to Lenny Dykstra to give the Mets the victory in Game 3 of the NLCS. Four total appearances. Four shoddy outings. Might as well go five-for-five.
The first two batters against Smith both walked on 3-2 pitches, as Gary Carter and Darryl Strawberry showed patience at the plate, and helped the Mets load the bases against the Astros. The next batter was Ray Knight, who worked the count to 2-2 before becoming the fifth batter in the inning to produce with two strikes on him. Knight hit a sacrifice fly to right, scoring Hernandez with the tying run and moving Kid and Straw into scoring position. The next batter, Wally Backman, was intentionally walked to bring up pinch-hitter Danny Heep. Heep worked the count full, but instead of becoming the sixth Mets batter to come through after strike two, the mighty Danny struck out, swinging at ball four, which would have given the Mets the lead.
Alas, the game was tied. But the fun was just beginning.
Roger McDowell came in to pitch the tenth inning, as the Mets needed a new pitcher to replace Rick Aguilera, who had been taken out of the game when Lenny Dykstra pinch hit for him in the ninth inning. McDowell would end up giving the Mets one of the best relief efforts in club history.
Perhaps it was a higher power that allowed Roger McDowell to pitch the game of his life in Game 6.
The Mets had hoped that McDowell would only have to pitch one or two innings, thinking that they would score against the Astros' bullpen. But that was easier said than done, as the Mets failed to pick up a hit over the next four innings against Dave Smith and Larry Andersen. Fortunately for the Mets, McDowell matched zeroes with the Astros' relievers, allowing only one baserunner (a 12th inning single to Kevin Bass) over five innings of work. The jolly Roger had gotten the Mets to the 14th inning, and the Astros were bringing in a new pitcher. The time for zeroes had come to an end.
Aurelio Lopez was on the mound for the Astros to start the 14th inning. Like Dave Smith, Lopez had also performed poorly against the Mets during the regular season. His 7.36 ERA against New York was his highest earned run average against any team in 1986. When manager Hal Lanier inserted Lopez into the game, he was hoping to get the reliever who allowed National League opponents to hit only .221 against him. Instead, they got the reliever who couldn't get anyone out.
Gary Carter led off the inning with an opposite field single. Darryl Strawberry then walked on four pitches. After Ray Knight failed to sacrifice Carter to third (the Mets' catcher was thrown out by Lopez at third base), Wally Backman stepped up to the plate. With one swing from the Mets' scrappy second baseman, the Mets had taken the lead, as Backman's single scored Strawberry from second base. The Mets actually had a chance to do more damage against Lopez in the inning, as Lenny Dykstra was walked intentionally with two outs to load the bases for Mookie Wilson. However, just as Danny Heep had done five innings before him, Mookie struck out against a struggling pitcher. Nevertheless, the Mets had taken a 4-3 lead against the Astros and were now only three outs away from winning their third National League pennant. But the Astros had the top of their order up and were not about to go quietly into the offseason.
Jesse Orosco was called upon to pitch the bottom of the 14th for the Mets, as McDowell had been removed for pinch-hitter Howard Johnson in the top of the inning. After his five-inning, 58-pitch effort, McDowell was done for the late afternoon/early evening and it was up to Orosco to deliver the pennant. His first batter was Bill Doran.
Doran was a speedy second baseman for the Astros who made excellent contact and had one of the best eyes in the league. With 42 stolen bases in 1986, Doran placed fifth in the NL in that category. He also finished fifth with 81 walks and was one of the toughest batters to strike out (57 Ks in 550 at-bats). Doran's eye for strikes became even better in the postseason, as he had fanned only once in his first 25 postseason at-bats up to that point. So what did Doran do as he faced Orosco in what quite possibly could have been his last at-bat of the season? He struck out on four pitches.
The next batter was centerfielder Billy Hatcher. Hatcher had just finished his first full season with the Astros after playing in 61 games for the Cubs in 1984 and 1985. He had never been considered a power threat and was not a top candidate to get on base, as evidenced by his eight home runs in his first 641 career plate appearances and his .297 on-base percentage. Hatcher had gone 5-for-23 in the series and should have been an easy out for Orosco, as he had never gotten a hit off the Mets' reliever in four career plate appearances. But with a full count on him, Hatcher hit one of most memorable home runs in postseason history, crushing Orosco's offering to deep left field. The ball was hit far enough, but would it stay fair? That question was answered as the ball hit the screen attached to the foul pole, rolling down said screen, washing away the Mets' 14th inning pennant hopes. The game was now tied, 4-4, and Orosco's save situation had now turned into a "let's get out of this inning alive" situation.
With the three and four hitters coming up, including the dangerous Glenn Davis, Orosco had to settle down or else a seventh game against Mike Scott would become a shocking reality. The Mets' veteran got back on the mound and promptly retired Denny Walling and Davis on a weak grounder to first and a pop-up to second, respectively, to end the inning. The game, which had already reached epic proportions, would go on.
Stunningly, despite his best efforts to blow the game for the Astros in the 14th inning, Aurelio Lopez was still on the mound for the 15th, but this time he fared better against the Mets, allowing only a two-out single to Gary Carter. With Darryl Strawberry at the plate, Lopez threw a 1-1 pitch wildly, but Carter was thrown out at second base by catcher Alan Ashby to end the inning.
Orosco also went back to the hill for the bottom of the 15th, and he did even better than Lopez, striking out Kevin Bass and Jose Cruz to start the inning, before getting Alan Ashby to ground out to Wally Backman for the final out. The 16th inning was upon us, only one day and 2,000 miles after the Mets and Astros had played 12 scintillating innings in New York. Something had to give after 27 innings of pulse-pounding baseball. Something did give when the Mets came to bat in the top of the 16th.
After his relatively easy 15th inning, Lopez was given the ball again to start the 16th, but this time he wouldn't be so lucky. Darryl Strawberry, who was given a fresh turn at-bat after Gary Carter ran his way into the final out in the previous inning, led off the 16th with a double. He was followed by Ray Knight, who delivered an opposite field single to score Strawberry from second. That was it for Aurelio Lopez, who was removed from the game for Jeff Calhoun. With Wally Backman at the plate and an 0-2 count on him, Calhoun uncorked a wild pitch, sending Knight to third. Backman fought back from the 0-2 hole and was able to draw a walk.
Next came Jesse Orosco, who was allowed to stay in the game to sacrifice Backman over to second. On the very first pitch to Jesse, who had already squared around to bunt, Calhoun threw another wild pitch, scoring Ray Knight and moving Wally Backman to second. The Mets were now up by two runs in the 16th, but they were not done yet. Orosco laid down a successful sacrifice, with Backman taking third on the play, and Lenny Dykstra drove him in with a single to right, giving the Mets a 7-4 lead. Even though Mookie Wilson ended the inning by grounding into a double play, the Mets surely had to be happy with their three-run lead. This time, they weren't going to give up the lead like they did in the 14th, especially with the Astros riding on fumes, right? Unfortunately for the Mets and their fans, those fumes had one more rally left in them.
The bottom of the 16th began as the 14th inning had, with Jesse Orosco striking out the first batter (in this case, it was Craig Reynolds) to bring the Mets within two outs of winning the National League pennant. But then Orosco started showing fatigue of his own, allowing the next three batters to reach base. Pinch-hitter Davey Lopes started the rally with a walk, followed by consecutive singles by Bill Doran and Billy Hatcher. The latter single scored Lopes from second base and put the tying runs on base for Denny Walling.
Davey Johnson could have taken Orosco out of the game there, especially since both singles by Doran and Hatcher were hit on the first pitch, but the Mets manager stayed with his veteran closer, hoping he would reward his faith in him by getting the final two outs of the game. It seemed as if Orosco would get out of the jam and deliver the pennant to New York when Denny Walling hit a ground ball to Keith Hernandez, who attempted to start an inning-ending double play. However, the ball wasn't hit hard enough and the only out the Mets could get was a forceout of Billy Hatcher at second base. The Astros now had runners on first and third and Glenn Davis was coming up. A home run by the Astros' slugger would give Houston the improbable victory, adding more suspense to an already tense moment. Although the left-handed Orosco didn't give in to the right-handed Davis, he still wasn't able to send him back to the dugout, as Davis produced a run-scoring single to center, scoring Doran and moving Walling to second base. The game was now 7-6, and the tying and winning runs were on base for Kevin Bass.
Bass had already committed a mistake in the game way back in the first inning (hence the "more on him later" 21 paragraphs ago) when he got tagged out by Bob Ojeda trying to score on a failed double steal attempt. Had Bass not made that gaffe, the game might have ended after nine innings. Instead, the Mets and Astros were playing on into the Houston night in a game that seemingly did not want to end.
Baseball is a game of redeeming features, and Bass was being given a second opportunity to make up for his costly first inning baserunning error. Orosco was one out away from giving the Mets a hard-fought pennant, but was not making it easy for himself or his team. After going to a 3-2 count on Bass, Keith Hernandez came over to the mound to deliver an ultimatum to Orosco.
"If you throw him another fastball, we're going to fight."
With those words, Jesse buckled down, looked in at catcher Gary Carter's signs and threw Kevin Bass a full-count slider. In a moment that will forever live on in the minds and hearts of Mets fans, Bass flailed wildly at the pitch, striking out on the 3-2 offering and touching off a wild celebration on the Astrodome mound and on the streets of New York.
After four hours and forty-two minutes, the Mets had finally won their first pennant in 13 years. They had overcome eight masterful innings by starter Bob Knepper and two furious extra-inning rallies by the Astros' hitters to come out on top. Despite the game lasting 16 innings, the Mets only used four pitchers in the game, with none of them lasting fewer than three innings. Davey Johnson put faith in his pitchers' arms and that faith was now taking the Mets to the World Series.
The Mets would go on to play the Boston Red Sox in that World Series, and they would play in another memorable Game 6, one that has become even more memorable than the one played in the NLCS. But without that first epic Game 6, there might not have been a World Series appearance for the Mets in 1986.
Twenty-five years ago today, the Mets and Astros gave us baseball theatre in Houston. The curtain did not come down for 16 innings, but in the end, the players all came through with the performances of their lives. It might now be known as "the other Game 6", but it's always be one of the most amazing games ever played.
I've got a funny story to tell you. No, really. It'll crack you up. It's about Phillies' shortstop Jimmy Rollins. Giggling yet? Okay, here goes.
Jimmy Rollins wants a five-year contract.
I'll give you a few moments to collect yourself.
It's true. The former National League MVP (accent on "former") and soon-to-be free agent is seeking a five-year deal to remain with the Phillies or with whoever doesn't mind giving their money away.
Jimmy Rollins' decision to ask for a five-year deal is certainly a head-scratcher.
Let's review this together. This isn't the 2007 Jimmy Rollins we're taking for a spin here. You remember that model, don't you? Rollins was 28 years old and entering his prime when he proclaimed the Phillies as the team to beat in the National League East and then went out and delivered an MVP season. That was four years ago.
Now Rollins is about to turn 33. He is coming off a season in which he was placed on the disabled list for the fourth time in four seasons. He has also continued his decline as the Phillies' leadoff hitter and spark plug. After his magical 2007 season in which he hit .296 with 38 doubles, a league-leading 20 triples, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 41 SB and 139 runs scored (also pacing the NL in that category), his numbers have suffered.
Since 2008, Rollins has missed a total of 126 games for the Phillies. His batting average over the past four seasons has been an unimpressive .261 and his on-base percentage (.325) has not been what a team should expect from its leadoff hitter. Furthermore, Rollins' unexpected power surge in 2007 has proven to be a fluke, as the shortstop has averaged only 14 HR per season since his MVP season.
Speaking of flukes, do you remember those 20 triples he hit in 2007? (You should. I only mentioned it two paragraphs ago.) In the four years since the 2007 campaign, Rollins has managed to hit only 19 triples. That's one less triple in a quartet of seasons than he managed to hit in one playing-over-his-head season.
So we have a player who's clearly on the downside of his career, knows all the employees at the DL Hotel by first name, and this player is asking to be rewarded with a five-year contract? Is he being serious or does he think we're as dumb as Turd Ferguson?
Turd Ferguson doesn't think Jimmy Rollins is being funny with his contract demands, and Turd Ferguson knows a thing or two about what's funny.
Let's talk about some of Jimmy Rollins' teammates, shall we? First, there's Cliff Lee. In 2010, he helped lead the Texas Rangers to their first World Series appearance in franchise history, a year after he pitched in the Fall Classic for the Phillies. From 2008 to 2010, Lee went 48-25 with a 2.98 ERA and picked up valuable postseason experience. For his efforts, the Phillies signed the 32-year-old Lee to a $120 million contract. How long was this contract for? Five years.
Now, let's discuss Rollins' infield mate, Ryan Howard. The Phillies' behemoth has been one of the most feared power hitters in all of baseball since making his major league debut in 2004. Since 2006, Howard has averaged 44 HR and 133 RBI per season, along with a .274 batting average and .369 on-base percentage. In April 2010, the Phillies gave the then-30-year-old Howard a $125 million contract extension that would begin in 2012. What was the length of Howard's deal? Five years.
Finally, let's look at a certain Harry Leroy Halladay. The Phillies traded for Halladay prior to the 2010 season and gave him a $60 million contract extension that began this season. At the time of the trade and subsequent extension, Halladay was 32 years old. Since then, Halladay has given the Phillies a regular season perfect game, a postseason no-hitter, a 40-16 won-loss record and a stellar 2.40 ERA. So how long was that extension the Phillies gave him? Three years.
So Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay, two of the best pitchers in the National League who have no health issues and are showing no signs of slowing down, get five years and three years, respectively. Ryan Howard, the top slugger in the league who had no injury history prior to signing his deal, also gets five years. None of the three players was older than 32 years old at the time they signed their deals with the Phillies.
Jimmy Rollins is currently older than all three players mentioned above at the time they put their John Hancocks on their contracts. He also has an injury history and has seen a sharp decline in his numbers, something Lee, Halladay and Howard could not say when they signed on the dotted line.
There is no way Rollins will get a five-year contract from anyone, including the only team he has suited up for. If the Phillies gave five years to the healthy, productive and younger Cliff Lee and Ryan Howard and only three years to one of the best pitchers of our generation in Roy Halladay, why should they give the brittle Rollins what he's asking for?
Jose Reyes might not get more than five years and that's the 28-year-old reigning National League batting champion we're talking about. Rollins should consider himself lucky if he gets a Jeter-esque three-year deal.
Simply stated, Wile E. Coyote, Genius has a better chance to get a five-year deal than Jimmy Rollins, Comedian. At least with Wile E., you know he'll come back from an injury quickly to do what he does best.
Greetings, everyone! This is your fav'rit Studious Metsimus correspondent, culinary expert and prognosticator Joey Beartran. I'm writing this to you from my cubby hole in the Mets dugout since the team isn't really using it much right now. So have you been enjoying the 2011 baseball playoffs as much as I have? The hated Yankees and Phillies have been eliminated from championship contention, with both teams losing the fifth and deciding game of their respective division series in front of their spoiled and obnoxious fans.
If any of you missed my division series predictions last week, shame on you! You missed that I correctly predicted the demise of the Bronx Bummers and the Phightless Phils to the Detroit Tigers and St. Louis Cardinals, respectively. I also correctly predicted the Brewers' series victory over the Diamondbacks, while erring on the Rangers-Rays series. But hey, as Meat Loaf would have said had he added one extra series to his song, three out of four ain't bad.
So now we are left with the ALCS and the NLCS, featuring no East Coast teams and no West Coast teams. The Midwest is alive and well in the 2011 baseball playoffs. It's a round of playoffs John Mellencamp would be proud of.
On that note, let me stop yapping and start giving you what you came for when you chose to read this. With no Yankees and Phillies to root against anymore, here are my not-as-biased predictions for the 2011 American League and National League Championship Series.
American League Championship Series
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
The Detroit Tigers might not have the experience the Texas Rangers have, as this is only the Tigers' second trip to the ALCS since 1987, while most of the Rangers are making their second consecutive trip to the League Championship Series. However, the Rangers, for all the offense and experience they might have, are missing one key thing from last year's team.
They no longer have Cliff Lee.
As Lee went in the 2011 playoffs, so went the Rangers. In three appearances against the Rays and Yankees in the ALDS and ALCS, Lee was dominant, winning all three starts while giving up two runs in 24 innings for a 0.75 ERA. He also allowed only 14 baserunners (13 hits, one walk) for a microscopic 0.58 WHIP, while striking out 34 batters. Then came the World Series against the Giants, when Lee crash landed back to Earth, losing both of his starts and posting a 6.94 ERA. Naturally, the Rangers couldn't ride on Lee's shoulders and they lost the World Series.
The Tigers have their own version of Cliff Lee in Justin Verlander. However, they don't need Verlander to win every start to win this series. Detroit has a very good pitching staff following their Cy Young candidate, a rotation that includes Doug Fister, Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello. And of course, there's the formidable one-two punch in the bullpen of Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde, who has been a perfect 51-for-51 in save situations.
Good pitching defeats good hitting, as the Yankees can attest. The Rangers have good hitting, but the Tigers have the weapons to stymie their big bats. As for Texas' starting pitchers, although all five starters won at least 13 games apiece, they were bailed out by their offense more often than not. C.J. Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA) is a legitimate ace, but he's no Justin Verlander (or Cliff Lee, for that matter). Colby Lewis and Derek Holland went a combined 30-15, but also collectively had an ERA over 4.00 and a WHIP approaching 1.30. That doesn't bode well when facing a team that can boast a pair of hitters in the middle of their lineup who hit .330 with over 100 RBI (Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez).
The Rangers might have the home field advantage, but the Tigers have the edge in this series. It'll be close, but Detroit will prevail.
Prediction: Tigers in 6.
National League Championship Series
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
In early September, if you would have said that a pair of division rivals were going to square off in the NLCS, odds are that it would've been the Braves and Phillies fighting it out for the pennant. But how quickly things change, courtesy of the St. Louis Cardinals.
The Cardinals erased a 10½-game lead to overtake the Braves for the National League wild card and then took out the Phillies in a hard-fought division series. They did this without ace Adam Wainwright throwing a pitch for them all year and with Albert Pujols having his first sub-.300, sub-100 RBI campaign. It's a testament to the managerial skills of Tony La Russa, who has now guided the Cardinals to the NLCS seven times since becoming their skipper in 1996. Despite the seven trips to the NLCS, St. Louis has been able to win the pennant only two times.
Milwaukee, on the other hand, has only been to the World Series once in over four decades of existence. That came in 1982, when they faced (you guessed it) the St. Louis Cardinals, losing the title in seven games. If the Brewers want to play for the championship, they'll have to get by the team who prevented them from winning the championship in 1982.
The 1982 Brew Crew was nicknamed Harvey's Wallbangers. Let's just say it wasn't because of their pitching staff. That Brewers team featured two future Hall of Famers (Robin Yount and Paul Molitor) in their everyday lineup, as well as sluggers Ben Oglivie, Cecil Cooper and Gorman Thomas. Their pitching staff was serviceable, but they mostly rode on the shoulders of their high-octane offense. (Kind of Texas Ranger-like, don't you think?)
The 2011 Brewers have two great hitters in Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but they also have an outstanding threesome at the top of their rotation. Yovani Gallardo, Zack Greinke and Shawn Marcum combined to go 46-23 for Milwaukee this season. In nearly 600 innings pitched, the three hurlers had a collective 3.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and nearly a strikeout per inning (566 Ks in 579.2 innings).
The Cardinals have a good staff, but it is not very deep. A rotation that has Kyle Lohse leading it in ERA can't be that good. In the division series, it was just good enough to get past the Phillies, who were ninth in the National League in batting average (.253) and eighth in home runs (153). Being "just good enough" will not suffice against Milwaukee, who finished third in the league in batting average (.261) and led the NL in homers (185).
St. Louis might have more playoff experience and the better manager, but Milwaukee is too good right now. They can beat you with their bats and their arms (I didn't even mention John Axford, who saved 46 games for Milwaukee and was the proud owner of a 1.95 ERA) and will be playing four out of a potential seven games at Miller Park, where their 57-24 home record was the best in the majors.
The Cardinals make for a fine Cinderella story, but the glass slipper won't fit against Milwaukee.
Prediction: Brewers in 6.
And that'll do it for my League Championship Series predictions. If my prophetic skills are as good as I think they are, it'll be a Tigers-Brewers World Series. It's not the World Series America might want, but it's one small town America might embrace. Isn't that right, Mr. Mellencamp?
In making the final out of the Phillies' season for the second straight year, Ryan Howard suffered an apparent Achilles injury, falling to the ground and writhing in pain as the Cardinals celebrated their unlikely division series victory. In a worst-case scenario (torn ACL), Howard would miss nine months or more while recovering from surgery to repair the tear. In other words, Howard's 2012 season would be kaput.
Although Ryan Howard batted only .253 for the Phillies in 2011, he was their main power source, providing 33 HR and 116 RBI in 152 games. For a team that plays half of its games in a hitter-friendly ballpark, Howard was the only player to hit over 20 HR. Free-agent-to-be Raul Ibañez was second on the team with exactly 20 HR and 84 RBI. Take out Howard and the soon-to-be 40-year-old Ibañez, and no Phillie hit more than 17 HR (Shane Victorino, of all people, hit 17 bombs) or picked up more than 63 RBI (accomplished by Jimmy Rollins, another free-agent-to-be who has already gone on the record as saying he won't accept a hometown discount to re-sign with the Phillies).
So if Howard doesn't play in 2012 and Ibañez leaves via free agency, the Phillies' lineup will look an awful lot like the Mets. Even with those two players in the everyday lineup for Philadelphia in 2011, the Mets still scored more runs (718) than the Phillies (713), produced more doubles (309 to 258), triples (39 to 38), hits (1,477 to 1,409), stolen bases (130 to 96) and even led them in walks (571 to 539). That's right. The Mets, who used Daniel Murphy as their cleanup hitter for 33 games, were walked 32 more times than the Phillies, who supposedly have a more fearsome lineup.
Now take Howard and Ibañez out of that lineup and what do you have left? A declining and oft-injured second baseman in Chase Utley, an as-yet unsigned shortstop who will be 33 in November and who has a career OBP of .329 primarily out of the leadoff spot in the batting order, and a 36-year-old third baseman who produced a .277, 5 HR, 50 RBI season in 122 games played (numbers eerily similar to Justin Turner's 2011 season). Basically, the Phillies offense will be led by Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. I mean, catcher Carlos Ruiz led all Phillies' starters (minimum 100 games played as a Phillie) in batting average with a .283 mark. When your most consistent hitter over a full season is Carlos Ruiz, that says a lot about your offense.
Does anyone really think Chase Utley is going to return to his All-Star caliber form? Utley played in 103 games in 2011 and hit .259 with 11 HR and 44 RBI. Think about that. Batting in the middle of that lineup and playing in that bandbox of a ballpark, Utley managed only 44 RBI in 454 plate appearances. To put that into perspective, Daniel Murphy drove in five more runs (49) than Utley did in 31 fewer plate appearances (423). Even Josh Thole (40 RBI) drove in more runs per plate appearance (386 PA) than Utley did in 2011. Since 2007, when Utley hit .332, his batting average has gone down every year. He hit .292 in 2008, .282 in 2009, .275 in 2010 and bottomed out at .259 in 2011. The Phillies will have to deal with his declining production for the remaining two years and $30 million of his contract.
Like the rest of his teammates, Chase Utley is literally down and out.
If Jimmy Rollins doesn't return, who will be their starting shortstop? (It better not be Jose Reyes.) Surely, they can't entrust the position to Wilson Valdez, he of the .294 OBP in 2011? But maybe his defense is better than Rollins. Uh, actually it's not. Rollins played in 142 games and made only seven errors, while Valdez played in 99 games and committed nine errors.
Ever since Scott Rolen showed his brotherly love for Philadelphia by leaving the city in a trade in 2002, the Phillies have been searching for his replacement. They tried David Bell from 2003-2006 and got nothing. They employed a trio of third sackers in 2007 (Greg Dobbs, Wes Helms, Abraham Nuñez), all of whom started at least 50 games at the hot corner. They tried Pete Happy (Pedro Feliz) for two seasons in 2008 and 2009, before finally settling on Placido Polanco in 2010. This is the same Placido Polanco who was acquired in the Scott Rolen trade in 2002 and replaced him at third base for the remainder of that season before moving over to second base in 2003 and 2004 to accommodate David Bell. Once Chase Utley was called up to the team, Polanco was out of a job and was traded to Detroit in 2005, where he blossomed, hitting .311 in four seasons with the Tigers. So of course, the Phillies re-signed him prior to the 2010 season and have seen his numbers wilt.
As of right now, Hunter Pence is the only regular position player on the Phillies who isn't north of age 30. The pitching staff of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Oswalt might be truncated by one in 2012, as Roy Oswalt has a $16 mutual option for the 2012 season. However, Oswalt went 9-10 for a team that won 102 games, finished the year with his second-highest ERA over a full season in his 11-year career, and spent almost two months on the disabled list. If the Phillies think that's worth $16 million, who am I to stop them?
Vance Worley might be able to replace Oswalt in the rotation, but is he for real? In parts of two seasons with the Phillies, Worley is 12-4 with a 2.86 ERA in 23 starts. But this great start wasn't something that could have been predicted after looking at his numbers in the minor leagues. Worley started 76 games over parts of four seasons in the minors. In those starts, he was barely above .500, going 25-23. His ERA was unimpressive (3.80) and his WHIP (1.25) wasn't exactly among the league leaders. He also wasn't a strikeout pitcher in the minors, averaging 6.9 strikeouts per nine innings. Then he comes to the major leagues, where hitters aren't familiar with him and he lowers his ERA by a full run, while upping his strikeout rate to 8.1 K/9 IP. At least Cole Hamels' major league success followed an impressive minor league career, one in which he went 14-4 with a 1.43 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and registered 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
You didn't think I'd mention Cole Hamels and not show his photo, did you?
There are too many question marks surrounding the Phillies in 2012. Their position players are getting older and piling up more injuries. Their main source for power might miss the entire 2012 season, a season in which his new five-year, $125 million contract kicks in. Their left side of the infield might consist of Placido Polanco and Wilson Valdez, two players in their mid-30s, who combined for six home runs and 80 RBI in 2011. If John Mayberry (15 HR, 49 RBI in 104 games) becomes the Phillies' main power source in 2012, their lineup won't look very scary at all.
Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee might continue to be All-Star-caliber pitchers for years to come. Or maybe they'll both realize that they're entering their mid-30s and will suffer the same setbacks the other thirty-somethings on the Phillies are. The Phillies are in more trouble than people think. Their seasons are ending earlier year after year (World Series losers in 2009, NLCS losers in 2010, NLDS losers in 2011), and that may be a sign of things to come.
For a team like the Mets, the gap between them and the Phillies might be as wide as it's going to get. The Mets might not have to shorten that gap on their own. The Phillies might be helping them do it with their multiple albatross contracts and their inevitable meeting with Father Time. And it all began last night, when Ryan Howard's Achilles decided to go kaplooey. Because of it, the Phillies' dominance in the National League might soon be going kaplooey as well.
Come closer to the screen. I want to let you in on a little secret. Are you with me? Okay, here goes.
Jose Reyes won the National League batting title this year.
What was that? You knew that already? You want me to tell you something you don't know? Fine, but don't say I didn't warn you. In fact, I have a number of things to tell you that you probably didn't know. And once I tell you, you'll see that Jose Reyes' 2011 season was even greater than you originally thought.
You had to look up to see Jose Reyes' name all over the National League leaderboard in 2011.
Jose Reyes batted .337 in 2011, the third-highest single season batting average in franchise history for a player who played the entire season as a Met. (Mike Piazza batted .348 in 109 games for the Mets in 1998, but he also spent time with the Dodgers and Marlins that year.) Naturally, Reyes' batting average represented a career high. But he also set career highs in on-base percentage (.384), slugging percentage (.493) and OPS (.877).
Reyes also finished among the league leaders in hits (181), multi-hit games (57), runs scored (101), triples (16) and stolen bases (39). He accomplished all this while playing in only 126 games due to his dual trips to the disabled list.
Fine. You can find that information anywhere. Now let's delve deeper into his final numbers.
On May 19, Jose Reyes went 0-for-3 with a walk. The following day, he went 0-for-4. That was the only time during the 2011 season in which Reyes went hitless in consecutive starts. (On September 17 and 18, Reyes also failed to collect a hit. However, he did not start the game on September 18, going 0-for-1 in a pinch-hitting appearance.) Furthermore, since Reyes drew a base on balls in the May 17th game, that means he was never kept off base in consecutive games all year. Let me repeat that in caps and bold it for greater effect.
NEVER DID JOSE REYES FAIL TO REACH BASE IN CONSECUTIVE GAMES ALL YEAR.
If you didn't see Reyes standing (or sliding) safely on/into a base in a game this year, all you had to do was wait until the next game. There was a 100% chance you'd see him on base then.
Although Jose Reyes has always been a bit of a free swinger, he has never been one to strike out very much. (Reyes' career high in strikeouts is 82, which he accomplished in 2008.) But he had never made such consistent contact until this year.
In 2011, Reyes struck out 41 times in 537 official at-bats, an average of one strikeout every 13.1 at-bats. Reyes was the toughest man to strike out in the National League, with every other player striking out at least once every 11 at-bats. Yadier Molina finished second in this category, striking out once every 10.8 at-bats (44 Ks in 475 AB).
Let's put Reyes' numbers into perspective. For Yadier Molina to have finished with a better K/AB rate than Reyes, he would have had to register 40 more at-bats in 2011 without striking out in any of them. Also, if Reyes had picked up 10 more at-bats and had struck out all ten times, Molina would have surpassed him. But Reyes only struck out more than ten times in a calendar month once, when he whiffed 11 times in April, so it would have been very unlikely for him to strike out in ten consecutive at-bats. In fact, Reyes never struck out more than twice in any game this year and he fanned more than once in a game only six times, never doing so after July 24.
Reyes the slugger? Absolutely, as you'll read in the next paragraph.
Finally, let's take a look at the National League leaders in slugging percentage. (You can find that info by clicking here.) Jose Reyes finished 17th in the National League in slugging percentage. He did so while hitting only seven home runs. Why is that worth mentioning? Because the other 16 players who finished ahead of Reyes hit at least 22 HR.
What makes this more amazing is that Reyes was the only player in the top 34 to hit fewer than 14 HR. Therefore, Reyes finished the season as one of the best "sluggers" in the league even though the other 33 players in the top 34 all hit at least twice as many home runs as he did. Of course, Reyes collected 47 extra-base hits that WEREN'T home runs (31 doubles, 16 triples). The only player in the National League who topped Reyes in that category was the Rockies' Dexter Fowler, who hit 35 doubles and 15 triples.
Those are just a few examples of how great Jose Reyes' 2011 season was. Reyes was more than just a high average hitter. He was as consistent a hitter as the Mets have ever had in a single season. He put the ball in play with more regularity than any Met in their 50-year existence and once he put the ball in play, he wasn't just satisfied with dinking and dunking singles here and there.
Jose Reyes had one of the most amazing seasons in Mets history in 2011. Let's hope the Mets re-sign him so we can enjoy more seasons such as this one.
The New York Mets did something this year that they had never accomplished during their first 49 years of existence. No, it wasn't a fourth place finish in the NL East (they're getting quite used to that spot in the division by now). Let's peruse the team's final RBI totals for 2011 to see if you can figure out what I'm talking about.
Despite being traded in late July to the San Francisco Giants, Carlos Beltran led the Mets in RBIs with 66. He was followed by David Wright (61), Jason Bay (57), Angel Pagan (56) and Justin Turner (51). But let's take a look a few other Mets and their RBI totals.
Lucas Duda had a strong second half to finish with 50 RBIs. Finishing one RBI behind Duda was Daniel Murphy (49), who missed the last seven weeks of the season with an injury. After Murphy, we had National League batting champion Jose Reyes (44), Josh Thole (40), Ruben Tejada (36), Nick Evans (25), Ike Davis (25), Scott Hairston (24), Willie Harris (23), Jason Pridie (20) and Ronny Paulino (19).
That gave the Mets a total of 16 players with at least 19 RBIs in this just completed season. (Dang you, Ronny Paulino for not getting an extra RBI to make this a list of the sweet sixteen players who reached the round number of 20 RBIs in a single season.)
So why is 16 players with 19 RBIs or more worth writing a blog about? Because it's never happened before in Mets history.
In 2007, the Mets had 13 players with 19 or more RBI, led by Carlos Beltran (112) and David Wright (107) and rounded out by Ruben Gotay (24) and Luis Castillo (20). The 2005 Mets also had 13 players reach that RBI figure, as did the 2004 team. To find a Mets team with at least 14 players reaching that not-so-round RBI total (seriously, Ronny Paulino, it was just one stinkin' RBI. Was that too much to ask for?) you have to go all the way back to 1972.
In the first season after the untimely passing of manager Gil Hodges, the Mets had a roster that included 14 players who drove in a minimum of 19 runs. That 1972 team, which finished 83-73 in the NL East (six games were wiped out due to a players' strike), were led by Cleon Jones and his 52 RBIs, which represent the lowest RBI total for a team leader in that category in franchise history. The other 13 players following Jones in the RBI department were Tommie Agee (47), John Milner (38), Rusty Staub (38), Duffy Dyer (36), Ed Kranepool (34), Ken Boswell (33), Jim Fregosi (32), Wayne Garrett (29), Bud Harrelson (24), Jerry Grote (21), Ted Martinez (19), Jim Beauchamp (19) and some guy named Willie Mays (19).
Prior to the 2011 season, no Mets team had ever had at least 15 players with at least 19 RBI. This year's team wasn't satisfied with having just 15 players reach that figure. They went out and made it a sweet sixteen. (Do you see the photo below, Mr. Paulino? Wouldn't that have looked better with a "20" where the "19" is?)
It's very rare for a team to have that many players accumulate enough at-bats to drive in as many as 19 runs in a season. After all, most teams carry 11 or 12 pitchers at any one time, leaving 13 or 14 spots on the roster available for the starting eight and the bench players. Many bench players only drive in 10 or 12 runs because they only pick up 100-200 at-bats per season, mostly through pinch-hitting appearances and spot starts whenever a regular player needs a day off. That wasn't the case for the 2011 Mets.
Because of injuries that kept a number of regular players out of the lineup for months at a time (see Davis, Ike and Wright, David) and one particular trade (Carlos Beltran), the Mets had a number of their players accumulate more at-bats than expected. Ten players had 300+ at-bats and three others had over 200. The more at-bats a player gets, the more likely he is to drive in a few extra runs. That was certainly the case for the 2011 Mets.
However, the Mets didn't set this team RBI record just because they had so many players getting an inordinate number of at-bats. Players such as Nick Evans (25 RBI in 176 at-bats) and Scott Hairston (24 RBI in 132 at-bats) were both excellent with men on base, with Evans hitting .308 in those situations and Hairston clubbing nearly half of his extra-base hits with runners on (7 XBH of 16 came with men on base). Putting Hairston's performance into perspective, Ike Davis (who was on his way to a fabulous sophomore season before his day-to-day injury kept him out for the remainder of the season) had four more plate appearances (149) than Hairston did (145), but only had one more RBI than the utility player.
The 2011 Mets might have had an unusually high number of players getting more at-bats than expected, but those players who would have normally spent the majority of the season on the bench or in the minors came through when given the opportunity. This record is not a fluke or a statistical aberration. It is a testament to the team put on the field by Terry Collins. The Mets' manager might not have had the best players to work with, but he did have players who contributed when called upon to do so. A team like that deserves to have a record such as this one, don't you think?
