Smells Like A Good Deal For Jonathon Niese!

It looks like our fav'rit homegrown lefty starter will be calling New York home for a very long time.  According to Adam Rubin, the Mets and Jonathon Niese will soon be shaking hands on a five-year deal worth approximately $28.5 million.  The deal would also call for two team options in 2017 and 2018, worth $11 million and $11.5 million, respectively.

Once the two sides have crossed their i's and dotted their t's (or is it the other way around), the deal will be made official.  It would be the first contract of more than two years signed by a Met under Sandy Alderson's watch and would also keep Niese in Flushing until he is in his 30s.

Keeping Niese into his 30s would give the Mets stability in the starting rotation.  But it would also give the team a chance to finally keep one of its homegrown players for the majority of his career.  With all the uncertainty surrounding David Wright and the possibility he will not be with the team in 2013, Niese could become the first homegrown player since Vance Wilson in 2003 to remain with the team until after his 30th birthday.

Even if Niese's club options for 2017 and 2018 aren't picked up, Niese has a good chance to establish himself as one of the top pitchers in franchise history.  That might seem like a stretch right now, but consider the following:

Jonathon Niese is currently tied for 43rd place on the Mets' all-time list with 22 victories.  Should he average only nine wins per year over the next five years, he would crack the top ten, surpassing Steve Trachsel, who is currently 10th on the Mets' all-time wins list with 66.  Despite spending time on the disabled list in 2010 and 2011, Niese reached the nine-win mark in both seasons.

With 315 strikeouts as a Met, Jonathon Niese is currently No. 39 on the team's all-time strikeout list.  Niese has averaged 143 strikeouts per season over the last two years, even with the time missed due to injuries.  If Niese were to average that amount over the duration of his contract (not including the option years), he would add 715 strikeouts to his career total, giving him 1,030 lifetime strikeouts.  Only seven pitchers in Mets history have reached that lofty total (Tom Seaver, Dwight Gooden, Jerry Koosman, Sid Fernandez, David Cone, Ron Darling, Al Leiter).

The Mets have had their share of excellent right-handed pitchers, such as the aforementioned Seaver, Gooden, Cone and Darling.  However, besides Koosman, Fernandez and Leiter, the only other left-handed pitcher in Mets' history to appear regularly on the club's all-time leaderboards is Jon Matlack.  (Johan Santana hasn't been healthy enough to appear on these lists and we're not discussing Tom Glavine here.)  By the end of his contract, we might be talking about Koosman, Fernandez, Leiter, Matlack and Niese as the top five left-handed starters in club history.  Who'da thunk it?

In giving Jonathon Niese a five-year deal, the Mets assured themselves of stability in their rotation through 2016.  But they may have also assured themselves of keeping a pitcher who could end up being mentioned in the same sentence as the team's all-time greats.

Seaver, Gooden, Koosman, Niese?  It's not as far-fetched as you think.

Never Mind Santana's Arm; The Mets Need His Bat!

Here's a bit of trivia for you.  There are six pitchers in Mets history who hit at least 10 doubles during their tenure in Flushing.  Can you name them?

Well, five of the six had long careers in New York.  The club's all-time leader in doubles by a pitcher is Ron Darling, who collected 20 two-base hits in nine seasons as a Met (but somehow, all he remembers are his home runs in back-to-back games in 1989).  Next up are Tom Seaver (17 doubles in 12 seasons), Dwight Gooden (15 doubles in 11 seasons), Sid Fernandez (14 doubles in 10 seasons) and Jerry Koosman (12 doubles in 12 seasons).  But right behind all of them with 11 two-baggers is a guy who's only been a Met for four seasons and one of them was spent entirely on the disabled list.

From 2008 to 2010, Johan Santana collected 11 doubles in 182 at-bats, am impressive feat for a player who had spent his entire career in the American League prior to joining the Mets in 2008.  That's as many doubles as Willie Randolph hit as a Met in 286 at-bats.  Even Jason Bay, who is paid to be a big-time hitter, needed 360 at-bats to reach 11 doubles in 2011.

Santana has averaged a double every 16.5 at bats as a Met.  Let's compare that to the top ten doubles leaders in Mets history:

• David Wright: 281 doubles in 4,161 at-bats (14.8 AB/double)
• Ed Kranepool: 225 doubles in 5,436 at-bats (24.2 AB/double)
• Jose Reyes: 222 doubles in 4,453 at-bats (20.1 AB/double)
• Howard Johnson: 214 doubles in 3,968 at-bats (18.5 AB/double)
• Edgardo Alfonzo: 212 doubles in 3,897 at-bats (18.4 AB/double)
• Carlos Beltran: 208 doubles in 3,133 at-bats (15.1 AB/double)
• Mike Piazza: 193 doubles in 3,478 at-bats (18.0 AB/double)
• Darryl Strawberry: 187 doubles in 3,903 at-bats (20.9 AB/double)
• Cleon Jones: 182 doubles in 4,223 at-bats (23.2 AB/double)
• Mookie Wilson : 170 doubles in 4,027 at-bats (23.7 AB/double)

As you can see, only David Wright and Carlos Beltran had a better doubles per at-bat ratio than Johan Santana, and their ratio isn't that much better than Santana's.

There are two Hall of Famers who hit fewer doubles while they were on the Mets than John Santana.  Duke Snider hit eight doubles as a Met in 354 at-bats and Richie Ashburn hit seven doubles in 389 at-bats.  Did I mention that both Snider and Ashburn were All-Stars as Mets despite their lack of two-base hits?

Mike Hampton was considered by many to be one of the best hitting pitchers of his generation.  But in his one season as a Met, he did not collect a single extra-base hit, despite his .274 batting average.

Johan Santana spent the entire 2011 season on the disabled list.  Obviously, the Mets missed him on the mound.  But looking at his career numbers, they might have missed him more at the plate.  Without question, Johan Santana not being available is double trouble for the Mets.  And I do mean double.

Loyalty And Leaderboards

Former Yankee catcher Jorge Posada officially announced his retirement from baseball today.  He left the game after playing exclusively for the Yankees since his promotion to the major leagues in 1995.

Those aren't sentences I usually begin a blog post with.  After all, this is Studious Metsimus, which the last time I checked, focused on Mets-related news.  But I couldn't help but notice something about Posada's career numbers with the Yankees, especially when compared to some of the Mets' all-time greats.

Jorge Posada collected 6,092 at-bats over his 17-year career.  In those at-bats, he picked up 1,664 hits, of which 379 were doubles and 275 were home runs.  Posada also walked 936 times, scored 900 runs and piled up 1,065 RBIs.  He's nowhere near the Yankee team leaders in any of those categories, nor does he rank among the top five hitting catchers of all-time, as players like Mike Piazza, Ivan Rodriguez, Johnny Bench, Ted Simmons, Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella were all better hitters than Posada.  So why am I making such a big deal about this?

Because Jorge Posada would be the Mets' all-time leader in hits, doubles, home runs, walks, runs scored and RBIs if he had played his entire career in Flushing.

As hard as it is for me to admit it, Jorge Posada was a better hitter than Ed Kranepool.

Jorge Posada surpassed 150 hits in a season only once (2007), a figure that has been achieved by many Mets.  One might argue that Posada's hit total would be lower than most hitters because of all his time spent as a catcher.  To those people, I submit the fact that Mike Piazza, also a catcher, reached the 150-hit plateau three times as a Met and eight times in his career.  Posada also hit 30 or more doubles four times, reached 30 home runs once, walked 100 times once, drove in 100 runs once and never scored 100 runs in any of 17 seasons.  Several Mets players have reached those numbers multiple times, except for walks, where John Olerud is the only Met to walk 100 times in a season.

Had Jorge Posada played his entire career as a Met and produced the same numbers, he'd be considered the greatest offensive player in Mets history and would be counting down the days till his number joined Nos. 37, 14 and 41 on the left field wall at Citi Field.  Instead, he is just one of many Yankees who had very good careers in pinstripes.  Is this a testament to the fact that the Yankees have been Slugger Central over the past century or have the Mets just done poorly developing and keeping their offensive stars?

There's a reason why Tom Seaver is referred to as "The Franchise".  It's not because he's the sole player in the Hall of Fame with a Mets cap on his plaque.   It's because the Mets have a tough time producing elite players, and when they do, they end up trading them or letting them walk via free agency.  Tom Seaver was an elite player with the Mets for 11 years.  Since 1983, when Seaver played his last game as a Met, the only player developed in the Mets' minor league system who spent over a decade in Flushing was Dwight Gooden.  The only hitters originally drafted by the Mets who played over a decade in New York were Ed Kranepool, Cleon Jones, Bud Harrelson and Ron Hodges.  That's not exactly a Murderer's Row we're talking about there.

Perhaps one day the Mets will develop a player in their minor league system, watch him become an All-Star in Flushing and keep him around for a while.  Jose Reyes could have been that player.  David Wright could still be that player if the Mets don't decide to keep their pennies to themselves.  Jorge Posada was that type of player for the Yankees.  Had he been a Met, he'd be atop the team's all-time leaderboard in a plethora of categories.  See what a little loyalty can do for you?

Misleading Stats On David Wright Change Everything

Since 2004, David Wright has been a fan favorite.  His name can be found all over the Mets' all-time offensive leaderboard and he has accomplished this all before his 29th birthday.  Because of this, some Mets fans would find it impossible to see the team without David Wright and would consider it sacrilege to trade him.

However, I've been doing some research on the Mets' career leaderboard and made some comparisons to another team's leaderboard.  Fans who bring up the fact that David Wright holds or is close to holding many of the club's all-time offensive records might change their minds on their favorite player once they read this.

The Mets came into existence in 1962, joining the National League with the Houston Colt .45s (who became the Astros in 1965).  Therefore, it would be fair to assume that both teams would have similar cumulative offensive statistics since they have both completed 50 seasons of play.  It would also be fair to assume that since David Wright has cemented his name at or near the top of the Mets' all-time leaderboard in many offensive categories, he'd rank just as highly in those categories had he been a member of the Astros.  Unfortunately for Wright, that is not the case.

Currently, David Wright ranks in the Mets' top ten in the following cumulative offensive categories:

• Games played: 1,106 (8th)
• At-bats: 4,161 (5th)
• Plate appearances: 4,782 (4th)
• Runs scored: 699 (2nd)
• Hits: 1,248 (3rd)
• Total bases: 2,112 (1st)
• Doubles: 281 (1st)
• Home runs: 183 (4th)
• RBI: 725 (2nd)
• Bases on balls: 535 (4th)
• Stolen bases: 151 (6th)
• Runs created: 825 (1st)
• Extra-base hits: 481 (1st)
• Times on base: 1,816 (2nd)
• Sacrifice Flies: 53 (2nd)

 Wright's bat has taken him far up the Mets' all-time leaderboard, but how great does that make him?

David Wright is currently the all-time Mets leader in total bases, doubles, runs created and extra-base hits and ranks in the top five in nine other categories.  Barring injury (and the potential departure of Jose Reyes via free agency), he could break the career club records for hits, RBIs, walks, times on base and sacrifice flies in 2012.

In addition to the above categories, if Wright plays 130 games in 2012, he will move into the No. 3 spot in games played for the Mets, surpassing Darryl Strawberry, Mookie Wilson, Howard Johnson, Cleon Jones and Jerry Grote.  He can also realistically enter the top three in at-bats, plate appearances and home runs during the upcoming season.

Without question, David Wright is one of the best offensive players in Mets history.  His high ranking in many of the club's career offensive categories clearly establishes that.  However, it would be a whole different story if Wright had achieved his numbers as a member of that other expansion team from 1962.  Let's look at where Wright's numbers would rank him on the all-time Houston Astros' offensive leaderboards in the same categories listed above.

• Games played: 1,106 (14th)
• At-bats: 4,161 (11th)
• Plate appearances: 4,782 (10th)
• Runs scored: 699 (7th)
• Hits: 1,248 (9th)
• Total bases: 2,112 (8th)
• Doubles: 281 (6th)
• Home runs: 183 (5th)
• RBI: 725 (7th)
• Bases on balls: 535 (8th)
• Stolen bases: 151 (12th)
• Runs created: 825 (7th)
• Extra-base hits: 481 (7th)
• Times on base: 1,816 (9th)
• Sacrifice Flies: 53 (T-5th)

 David Wright's bat wouldn't get him very far up the Houston Astros' all-time leaderboard.

If David Wright had been in Houston since 2004 and compiled the same offensive numbers he has for the Mets as an Astro, he wouldn't be considered an all-time great for that franchise.  Wright ranks in the Mets' top five in 13 different categories and is the team's all-time leader in four of them.  As an Astro, he wouldn't rank higher than fifth place in any of Houston's all-time cumulative offensive categories.  He wouldn't even rank in the top ten in three of them.

The fans who don't think Wright should be traded usually make their point by saying he's been one of the Mets' best players of all-time and he's not even 30 yet.  Yes, it's true that Wright has been one of the Mets' best offensive players of all-time.  It's also true that he's accomplished all of his accolades before age 30.

But the reason why Wright has been one of the all-time greatest Mets is because the Mets haven't had many great offensive players for him to be compared to, and when the Mets have had a game-changing offensive player, they've either traded him away (Rusty Staub), let him walk as a free agent (Darryl Strawberry and perhaps Jose Reyes) or acquired him after he established himself with another franchise (Keith Hernandez, Gary Carter, Mike Piazza).

Simply stated, the Mets haven't had a homegrown offensive player stay with them long enough to become a bonafide all-time great of the game.  The Astros had Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, two of the game's best players during their time in Houston and both potential Hall of Famers.  The Mets' sole Hall of Famer has been Tom Seaver, a pitcher.  Sure, the Mets have had future Hall of Famers play for them in the past, but most of those players had already locked up their ticket to Cooperstown before they became Mets (Yogi Berra, Warren Spahn, Willie Mays, Duke Snider, Richie Ashburn, Gary Carter, Eddie Murray, Rickey Henderson, Roberto Alomar).  Only Seaver and Nolan Ryan came up through the Mets' farm system, but both of them were pitchers.

It's sad to say it, but as of right now, there has never been an everyday player inducted into the Hall of Fame who was developed in the New York Mets' farm system and came into the major leagues as a member of the Mets.

David Wright will someday have his plaque displayed in the Mets' Hall of Fame and Museum to recognize him as an all-time great Met, but unfortunately, he is not an all-time great of the game.   When fans realize this instead of trying to make him bigger than what he really is, perhaps they'd realize that he'd have more value to the Mets as trade bait than he would have as a player for the team.

Daniel Murphy, Doubles Machine

Most of the news surrounding the Mets these days start with "Carlos Beltran this" or "Carlos Beltran that". In fact, there have been so many posts all over the blogosphere about the Mets' soon-to-be-traded rightfielder (such as this one and this other one. Both were decent pieces, but the latter post was a little too wordy for my tastes.) that it almost seems like no other player is newsworthy.

There are other players on this team that are contributing to its mediocre success. Sure, Jose Reyes has a great chance to become the Mets' first-ever batting champion. Yes, David Wright is back and hitting the ball with authority. But let's not forget another Mets' infielder who has also been quite prominent in the team's offense. I'm sure opposing outfielders know who he is, as they've been chasing his hits down the foul lines and in the power alleys.

His initials are D.M., but those letters also stand for his occupation. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you Daniel Murphy, Doubles Machine.

Daniel Murphy is pointing out where his next double is going to land.

Daniel Murphy may not have the power you'd like from a corner infielder (although he did lead the Mets with 12 HR in 2009), but he possesses the uncanny ability to drive the ball all over the field, with many of those well-struck hits going for doubles.

This season alone, Murphy has collected 24 doubles, earning him a spot in the top ten in the National League, six doubles behind league leader and teammate Carlos Beltran. The two dozen doubles in 2011 are not a fluke, as Murphy picked up 38 doubles in 2009, which left him one double short of finishing in the top ten in the NL that year.

The utility infielder now has 71 career doubles to his name (he hit nine two-baggers in 2008 after being called up to the Mets in August). So why does that make him Daniel Murphy, Doubles Machine? Because Murphy has amassed those doubles in only 985 career at-bats.

In a relatively short period of time, Murphy is now 47th on the Mets' all-time doubles list. No one ahead of Murphy on the list collected their doubles in fewer than 1,000 at-bats. In fact, of the 46 players ahead of Murphy on the franchise leaderboard, only three of them achieved their total in fewer than 1,500 at-bats. Those three players are:

• Bernard Gilkey: 90 doubles in 1,353 at-bats.
• Tim Teufel: 87 doubles in 1,279 at-bats.
• Todd Zeile: 77 doubles in 1,423 at-bats.

By the time Daniel Murphy reaches the number of at-bats compiled by Gilkey, Teufel and Zeile over their respective Mets careers, he might have already stroked career double No. 100.

Some people have questioned whether Daniel Murphy should be an everyday player in the major leagues. Others have asked whether he has a defensive position on a team like the Mets. These are both valid questions to ask, as Murphy's future with the team depends on whether both questions can be answered.

However, one question that should never be asked is if Daniel Murphy will always be a singles hitter. Daniel Murphy is NOT a Punch-and-Judy type hitter, nor has he ever been one.

In 985 career at-bats, he has collected 100 extra-base hits (in addition to his 71 doubles, Murphy has ripped nine triples and blasted 20 home runs), an average of one extra-base hit every 9.85 at-bats. That makes Murphy a more prolific extra-base hitter than the following:

• Jose Reyes: 10.99 AB/XBH (391 extra-base hits in 4,296 at-bats)
• Edgardo Alfonzo: 11.26 AB/XBH (346 extra-base hits in 3,897 at-bats)
• Tommie Agee: 11.90 AB/XBH (203 extra-base hits in 2,416 at-bats)
• Rusty Staub: 12.13 AB/XBH (212 extra-base hits in 2,571 at-bats)
• Keith Hernandez: 12.71 AB/XBH (249 extra-base hits in 3,164 at-bats)
• Cleon Jones: 13.71 AB/XBH (308 extra-base hits in 4,223 at-bats)

Murphy's penchant for the extra-base hit places him just behind some of the best hitters in Mets history, like Darryl Strawberry (8.32 AB/XBH), Carlos Beltran (8.36 AB/XBH), Mike Piazza (8.38 AB/XBH), David Wright (8.53 AB/XBH) and John Olerud (9.39 AB/XBH).

Whether you like him or not, you can't make an argument that Daniel Murphy is nothing but a singles hitter. In fact, he's the exact opposite. In a short period of time, Murphy has become one of the most prolific extra-base hitters in franchise history, especially in the doubles department.

So the next time you see Daniel Murphy striding to the plate with a man on base, consider that runner to be in scoring position, regardless of whether he's on first, second or third. Any runner on base for No. 28 is already in scoring position. That's one of the advantages of being on base for Daniel Murphy, Doubles Machine.

David Wright Hits Milestone Not Sponsored By The Letter "K"

David Wright came up to bat in the fourth inning of yesterday's twinbill opener with the Mets trailing 6-5. Angel Pagan was in scoring position after he singled and stole second base. A base hit would tie the game; a game in which the Mets had trailed 6-0 just one inning earlier. But Wright did more than just tie the game.

With one powerful swing, Wright launched his 28th HR of the season that just cleared the wall to the left of the home run apple. The blast gave the Mets a temporary 7-6 lead in a game they eventually lost by the score of 8-7.

The home run was significant because it gave Wright his 100th RBI of the season, marking the fifth time in the past six years he's reached the century mark. No other Met has recorded as many as four 100 RBI seasons. (Darryl Strawberry and Carlos Beltran each have three 100 RBI seasons in a Mets uniform.)


For all the people who say David Wright is not a clutch hitter, that he strikes out too much, consider the following.

Darryl Strawberry is considered the greatest home run hitter in Mets history. His 252 HR and 733 RBI in a Mets uniform have been the franchise record for two decades. However, he struck out 960 times in 3,903 at-bats as a Met. This was before players were registering astronomical strikeout totals with regularity. In almost the same number of at-bats (3,760), David Wright has struck out only 798 times.

David Wright has collected 168 HR and 661 RBI in his Mets career. He should become the Mets' all-time leader in RBI next season and should surpass Strawberry's career HR record within the next three years. By the time that happens, David Wright will be all of 30 years old, right in the middle of his baseball prime.

In addition to the home runs and RBI, Wright also ranks in the club's top five in career batting average (2nd), on-base percentage (4th), slugging percentage (3rd), runs scored (2nd), hits (3rd), doubles (1st) and walks (4th). With 14 more stolen bases, he will enter the top five in that category as well. No other player in franchise history ranks in the top five in all of those categories. Not Darryl Strawberry, not Mike Piazza, not anyone. David Wright stands alone in the top five for all of the categories listed above.


There is one category in which Wright has not yet cracked the top five. David Wright ranks ninth all-time in games played as a New York Met. That means he's achieved all of this success in fewer games than the other "greatest Mets of all-time".

His detractors will never admit it, but David Wright is on his way to become the greatest hitter, and perhaps the greatest player, in the history of the franchise. He should hold the majority of the franchise's offensive records by the time he's 30 years old. Should he remain a Met for the majority of his career, the top ten leaderboards should just be renamed "David Wright and Nine Other Guys." Not bad for a guy who supposedly strikes out way too much.