What Will The Mets Produce Next: A No-Hitter or A 20-Game Winner?

What do the Mets have a better chance of producing?  A no-hitter or a 20-game winner?  On the surface, the question appears to have a simple answer.

Considering that the Mets have had five different pitchers produce a total of eight 20-win seasons (Tom Seaver accomplished the feat four times, while Jerry Koosman, Dwight Gooden, David Cone and Frank Viola each did it once), yet they've never pitched a no-hitter, it would seem that the 20-game winner would be the obvious choice.

But what would appear to be the clear-cut favorite of two things sometimes isn't, as I'm sure fans of the 1988 Mets (boo, Dodgers) and 2006 Mets (boo, Cardinals) can attest.

The five pitchers who won 20 games in a single season for the Mets all experienced great success in the major leagues.  Tom Seaver won 311 games in the big leagues en route to receiving the highest percentage of votes of any Hall of Fame inductee.  Fellow 1969 World Series champion Jerry Koosman finished his career with 222 victories.  Dwight Gooden, David Cone and Frank Viola also had long and successful careers in the major leagues, with Gooden and Cone both winning 194 games and Viola finishing his career with 176 victories.

In addition, four of the five 20-game winners for the Mets also won the Cy Young Award at some point in their careers, with the lone exception being Jerry Koosman, who came tantalizingly close in 1976 when he finished second in the vote to Padres' pitcher (and future Met) Randy Jones.

Here's the kicker.  Although none of the five pitchers ever pitched a no-hitter while in a Mets uniform, three of them (Seaver, Gooden, Cone) accomplished the feat after leaving the Mets, and David Cone took it one step further, pitching a perfect game against the Montreal Expos in 1999 as a member of the New York Yankees.

Tom Seaver never did it as a Met.  Neither did Jerry Koosman, Dwight Gooden, David Cone or Frank Viola.  In fact, no Mets pitcher has ever pitched a no-hitter.  But dozens of Mets hurlers have tossed one-hitters, and not all of them were pitched by All-Stars or future Hall of Famers.  In fact, many of them were pitchers who didn't even win 100 games in the major leagues.

Of course, Tom Seaver leads the list of most one-hitters fired by Mets pitchers with five.  David Cone pitched two complete-game one-hitters as a Met and combined with Jeff Innis on a third.  Dwight Gooden pitched a one-hitter for the Mets during his rookie season, but never pitched another one in a Mets uniform.  Meanwhile, Jerry Koosman and Frank Viola never pitched a one-hitter for the Mets.
 
But Jack Hamilton did.  So did Terry Leach, Pete Schourek, Bobby Jones, Aaron Heilman, Jonathon Niese and R.A. Dickey.  What do all of those pitchers have in common?  None of them won 100 games over their major league careers.  Even Shawn Estes, who won four games as a Met, was able to pitch a one-hitter for the team.  (He could pitch a one-hitter, but he couldn't hit one pitcher.  Ah, the Roger Clemens jokes never get old, do they?)

Both Aaron Shawn Estes and George Thomas Seaver were known by their middle names and they both pitched one-hitters for the Mets.  But Seaver would've hit Roger Clemens if he had the chance.

Want some more?  Gary Gentry pitched two one-hitters as a Met, but only won 46 games in the majors.  John Maine also pitched two one-hitters in New York (with one being of the rain-shortened variety), yet he only won 41 games over his career (so far).  Even the underrated and never quite appreciated Steve Trachsel authored two one-hitters during the 2003 campaign.

A total of 35 one-hitters have been pitched in club annals.  More than half of them (18) have come after 1990.  Why is that year so important?  Because that was the last time the Mets had a 20-game winner.

Since Frank Viola's 20-win season in 1990, no Met pitcher has reached that level of pitching excellence.  In fact, the closest any pitcher has come was in 1998 when Al Leiter won 17 games for the Mets.

For a pitcher to win 20 games, he has to be consistently good over the course of an entire season.  It also helps to have a good bullpen.  Johan Santana went 16-7 for the 2008 Mets, but the bullpen blew seven games in which he left with the lead, costing him a potential 20-win season.  Meanwhile, to pitch a no-hitter, a pitcher only needs to have one game in which he harnesses all of his "stuff" against opposing hitters.

It's rare for a so-so pitcher to win 20 games.  None of the five pitchers who accomplished the feat for the Mets would be considered "so-so".  In fact, Seaver, Koosman, Gooden, Cone and Viola combined to make the All-Star team a total of 19 times as members of the Mets.

But considering how guys like Terry Leach, Pete Schourek and Aaron Heilman all came within one safety of becoming the first Met to pitch a no-hitter, it goes to show that players with nondescript careers can occasionally show flashes of brilliance.

All one needs to pitch a no-hitter is a nine-inning flash of brilliance.  For a pitcher to win 20 games in a season, he'll need a couple hundred innings of brilliance (and a good bullpen).  John Maine won only 39 games in five seasons as a Met, but came within one Paul Hoover dribbler of pitching a no-hitter.  Jonathon Niese has barely cracked 20 wins over his entire major league career, yet he came within a Chris Denorfia double of pitching a perfect game.  Even Pete Schourek and Shawn Estes, who won 20 games COMBINED over their Mets careers, have one-hitters to their credit.

It's true that the Mets have gone 50 years without a no-hitter, but perhaps we'll see one before we see another 20-game winner in a Mets uniform.  It's been 22 years since Frank Viola became to last Met to record 20 wins in a season.  Since then, there have been 18 occasions in which the Mets have come within one hit of recording the team's first no-hitter.  Common sense and superstition might suggest that the Mets will have another 20-game winner before they record their first no-hitter.  But considering how close the Mets have come to pitching a no-hitter on several occasions over the past two-plus decades, while not having a pitcher even sniff a 20-win season over the same time period might suggest otherwise.

What will Mets' pitchers accomplish next?  Will it be a no-hitter?  Or will it be a 20-win season?  It wouldn't surprise me if it was the former rather than the latter.

Don't Trade Jonathon Niese!

On Friday, a story broke about the possibility of trading Jonathon Niese to the Colorado Rockies for outfielder Seth Smith.  Fortunately, that trade will not become a reality, as earlier today, Jerry Crasnick of espn.com and Baseball America tweeted that the Mets have no interest in sending Niese to Colorado for Smith.

Of course, looking at Jerry Crasnick's tweet on the topic suggests the Mets wouldn't trade Niese to Colorado in a package involving Smith.  It doesn't say the Mets wouldn't trade him to the Rockies in a Smith-less deal.

Trading Niese at all right now would be foolish.  A player like Seth Smith, who will turn 30 before the 2012 season ends, does not give the Mets the production at an outfield position they need.  Since becoming an everyday player in 2009, Smith has averaged 24 doubles, 16 HR and 55 RBI per season, while hitting .275 with a .346 on-base percentage.  He has also played an average of 138 games a year over the past three seasons.

By comparison, Lucas Duda has played in 129 games in the major leagues since his first call-up in 2010.  In those 129 games (which are nine fewer than Smith has averaged per season since 2009), Duda has combined to hit .273 with a .347 on-base percentage, picking up 27 doubles, 14 HR and 63 RBI along the way.  Seems like the same player, doesn't it?  The only difference is that Duda is giving the Mets Seth Smith-type numbers at age 25, before entering the prime of his career, while Smith has already entered his peak years and has been achieving his numbers in a hitters' park.  Duda has played half of his games at cavernous Citi Field.

Although Niese has spent time on the disabled list in 2010 and 2011, he has still averaged 28 starts per season over the past two years.  Before getting hurt, he made great strides in 2011.  Niese increased his strikeout rate (7.7 K/9 IP in 2010, 7.9 K/9 IP in 2011) while showing better command of his pitches (3.2 BB/9 IP in 2010, 2.5 BB/9 IP in 2011).  He also did a better job of keeping the ball in the park, reducing his home runs allowed from 20 in 2010 to 14 in 2011.

Jonathon Niese is the type of pitcher the Mets have given up on too soon in the past.  Rick Aguilera did fairly well (37-27, 3.58 ERA) in his four and a half seasons in New York.  Kevin Tapani was also a promising prospect in the Mets organization.  Both pitchers were traded to Minnesota while they were still in their twenties.  Aguilera went on to become the Twins' all-time saves leader (recently surpassed by Joe Nathan and Tapani won 143 games in a 13-year career in the big leagues.

Even a player like Pete Schourek, whom the Mets gave up on after three seasons in New York, went on to surprise the non-believers.  In 1994, he went 7-2 for the Cincinnati Reds, who claimed him off waivers.  He followed that up by going 18-5 in 1995, leading the Reds to a division title and finishing second to Greg Maddux for the National League Cy Young Award.

It's been quite some time since the Mets have let a homegrown pitcher develop in the big leagues.  Not since Bobby Jones has the organization produced a pitcher that had some success in the major leagues as a member of the Mets.  Unfortunately, Jones last pitched for the Mets over a decade ago.  The team has failed to develop and keep one of its own pitchers ever since, choosing to fill its starting rotation with free agent acquisitions and players acquired via the trade market.  The one recent exception has been Mike Pelfrey, and he's only become the first Mets pitcher to give up more hits than innings pitched in six different seasons.

Jonathon Niese has the potential to become the next great homegrown pitcher for the Mets.  He also has the potential to be traded to a player of Seth Smith's caliber.  After so many failures with trading away young pitching talent too soon, shouldn't the Mets give Niese a chance? 

J-Niese Got A Gun

Born on the same day the Mets won their second World Series title, Jonathon Niese pitched like a champion tonight against the San Diego Padres, allowing only one man to reach base all game (a double to Chris Denorfia to lead off the third inning).

Niese became the 34th pitcher in Mets history to throw a one-hitter, joining greats such as Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden. On the other hand, he also joined not-so-greats Pete Schourek, Shawn Estes and Aaron F. Heilman on the Mets one-hitter list.

Whether he'll follow in the golden footsteps of Ryan, Seaver and Gooden or the muddy tracks left behind by Schourek, Estes and Heilman is yet to be determined, but one thing's for sure. Jonathon Niese has pitched brilliantly since returning from the disabled list last Saturday.

In addition to being effective in keeping men off base, he's also been very economical with his pitches. In his first start back from the DL on Saturday, he threw 90 pitches in seven innings and was only removed because of an understandable pitch count.

Tonight, Niese only needed 108 pitches to pitch his complete game gem. After eight innings, Niese had thrown 99 pitches. He could have been removed by Jerry Manuel, who had Francisco Rodriguez warming up in the bullpen. But as the crowd called for their 23-year old southpaw to come out of the dugout for the ninth inning, the bullpen door remained shut. It was then that we knew Jonathon Niese was coming out there to finish what he started. And what a finish it was. He retired Lance Zawadski, pinch hitter Nick Hundley and Jerry Hairston, Jr. on only nine pitches, capping off a nearly perfect night, when Chris Denorfia's third inning double was the only blemish in Jon Niese's performance.

The Mets have still never had a no-hitter in franchise history. But they got really close to a perfect game tonight. Jonathon Niese retired the final 21 batters to face him and at the same time might have given the Mets hope that they have a third quality starter on their staff after Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana.

Niese has now pitched two beautiful games since coming off the disabled list last week. He also shut down the Phillies back in late April before getting hurt. With multiple successful outings this season, this homegrown talent appears to be taking the right track to a successful career with the Mets.

Nolan Ryan, Tom Seaver and Dwight Gooden all pitched one-hitters for the Mets. They were also all homegrown talents. More importantly, they all own Mets World Series rings. So far, Jonathon Niese can claim the one-hitter and homegrown talent to his name. There's one more thing to shoot for. With more outings like tonight, the Mets know that if they are to get themselves another ring, Jonathon Niese might be a key contributor towards that goal. How amazin' is that!