This Year's Mets Have A 1984 Feel To Them

In 1984, the Mets were coming off one of the darkest eras in franchise history.  For seven straight seasons, the Mets finished at least 21 games under .500 and never finished higher than fifth place in the six-team NL East.  There were no expectations going into 1984 even though the team had a veteran leader in Keith Hernandez, a nice mix of homegrown talent (Darryl Strawberry, Hubie Brooks, Mookie Wilson, Wally Backman) and a new manager in Davey Johnson.

They also had a young pitcher named Dwight Gooden, who was given the ball despite having no experience in the major leagues.  Gooden went on to reward the Mets for showing their faith in him, making the All-Star team and becoming the fourth Met to win the Rookie of the Year Award.

After seven consecutive losing seasons, that combination of veteran leadership and youth, along with an intelligent manager, gave the Mets their first winning record since 1976 and only their second 90-win season in franchise history.

Fast forward nearly three decades to 2012.  The Mets have yet to record a winning season since moving to Citi Field in 2009.  In addition, although they did finish above .500 in each of their last three seasons at Shea Stadium, the 2006 to 2008 teams are most known for losing at the end of each campaign.  In essence, the team has "lost" for six straight seasons now.

But this year's Mets appear to be on the right track.  They have a young homegrown pitcher (Jonathon Niese) who was just given a vote of confidence by the Mets in the form of a five-year contract extension.  Just as Gooden rewarded the 1984 team when they had faith in him, Niese is doing the same for the 2012 club, winning his first two starts in dominant fashion (.156 batting average against, .178 slugging percentage against).

The 1984 Mets also had two veteran pitchers who performed very well for the team in Walt Terrell and Bruce Berenyi.  The two pitchers combined to go 20-18 with a 3.60 ERA.  Twenty-eight years later, the Mets have that same veteran presence in the rotation with Johan Santana and R.A. Dickey, who have both pitched exceptionally well during the first week and a half of the season.

Jesse Orosco (10-6, 31 saves, 2.59 ERA), Doug Sisk (15 saves, 2.05 ERA) and Tom Gorman (6-0, 2.97 ERA) were a formidable threesome in the bullpen in 1984, just as the trio of Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Bobby Parnell have been for the Mets in 2012 (the three have combined to post a 0.61 ERA and 0.68 WHIP).

As far as the offense goes, the 1984 Mets were fueled by a young power hitting rightfielder named Darryl Strawberry, who led the team with 26 home runs in his first full season in New York.  (The Straw Man was called up to the Mets in May 1983.)  The 2012 Mets also have a young power hitter in right field, Lucas Duda, who was called up for good during the 2011 season and is now leading the 2012 team in home runs.

Other young homegrown players who blossomed in 1984 were infielders Wally Backman and Hubie Brooks, as well as outfielder Mookie Wilson.  The 2012 team are succeeding with their own young homegrown players, such as infielders Ruben Tejada and Ike Davis, and outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Hubie Brooks' breakout season in 1984 allowed the Mets to trade him for Gary Carter, who started the tenth inning rally in Game 6 that ended with Mookie Wilson's roller.  Ain't symmetry grand?

And of course, who could forget about Keith Hernandez?  The man who would eventually become the Mets' first team captain was entering his eighth full season in the major leagues at the age of 30 and was absolutely spectacular (.311, 31 doubles, 15 HR, 94 RBI, .409 OBP).  David Wright is now entering his eighth full season with the Mets.  Wright, who will turn 30 before year's end, is off to his best start, hitting an impressive .571 (12-for-21), while also reaching base at a .615 clip.  The unofficial team captain has also struck out only two times in 26 plate appearances, becoming one of team's best contact hitters nearly three decades after Hernandez was doing the same.

Finally, just as Davey Johnson had managed many of his players in the minor leagues before becoming the Mets' manager in 1984, Terry Collins also coached a number of players in the Mets' minor league system who he eventually managed in the major leagues.  This familiarity would lead to a comfort level between both managers and their players, leading to less friction and more production.

No one expected the 1984 Mets to be as good as they were.  But they won six of their first seven games en route to a surprise second-place finish in the National League East.  The same can be said for the Mets' expectations in 2012.  But after a 6-3 start, predictions of a last-place finish might have to be revised.

Big Brother was watching everyone in 1984.  Now the 1984 Mets might be serving as a big brother to the 2012 team, writing the script that the current team is following.  In the end, the 1984 team fell short of the playoffs, as might their 2012 counterparts.  But the 1984 Mets served as a springboard for what was to follow over the next few seasons.  Will the 2012 Mets do the same?  It wouldn't be surprising if they did.

Mets Have It Niese And Easy Against The Phillies

Before the season began, the Mets were picked by the general consensus to finish in last place in the NL East.  The main reason for the prediction?  The division was supposed to be so much stronger that the Mets would have no chance in head-to-head competition.  So if that's the case, then why are the Mets cruising with a 6-2 record, especially since all of their games have been against division opponents?

After today's 5-0 victory over the Phillies, the Mets are now 5-0 against Philadelphia and Atlanta, the two teams that finished atop the division in 2011.  The top three pitchers in the rotation (Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey and Jonathon Niese) have combined to post a 1.77 ERA in six starts, collecting more strikeouts (35) than hits allowed (28).  In addition, the bullpen has been superb, with the three new acquisitions (Frank Francisco, Jon Rauch and Ramon Ramirez) combining to allow one earned run in 13⅓ innings.

But the main reason why the Mets are playing so well is because each player is capable of picking up one of his teammates when that teammate doesn't perform.  For example, in today's game, Jason Bay came up to to bat in the fourth inning with the bases loaded and no outs.  He promptly grounded into a double play, scoring a run but leaving the Mets with two outs and a potential big inning squelched.  In the past, the next batter would have been retired and the Mets would be left to wonder "what if".  But not the 2012 Mets.

After Bay's double play, Lucas Duda smacked a two-run homer to give the Mets a 4-0 lead, which gave Niese all the cushion he needed.  The Phillies never really threatened after Duda muscled Vance Worley's pitch out of the ballpark.

The teams that were supposed to compete in the NL East all have flaws.  The Phillies and Braves can't hit.  The Marlins can't field.  The Nationals have fewer flaws than the other teams in the division, hence why they're in first place.  But the Mets are not far behind.  They know they have flaws but they're finding ways to play around them.  Whereas past Mets teams continued to repeat their mistakes, this Mets team is learning from them.

Jason Bay and Ike Davis are not hitting well over the first eight games of the season.  But Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy and Josh Thole are.  David Wright is not swinging and missing as much as he has in the past.  The result of his better approach at the plate is a 10-for-17 start with only one strikeout.  And the pitching staff has excelled during the first week and a half of the season.  Even when it experiences hiccups (such as Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee's first starts of the season), the bullpen has kept the damage to a minimum.

No one expected the Mets to do anything in the NL East in 2012.  No one except the Mets themselves, that is.  With continued belief in their ability to perform well on the field, plus a dash of good health (which hasn't exactly been the Mets' forté over the past few years), don't be surprised if the Mets shock the league this year.  The Mets might not make the playoffs in 2012, but they won't be pushovers either.

The first eight games have me believing in the team.  Are they making believers of you?

With Santana Back, Should The Mets Go To A Six-Man Rotation?

After much speculation over the past few weeks, the Mets have announced that Johan Santana will indeed be the team's Opening Day starter.  He will followed in the rotation by R.A. Dickey, Jonathon Niese, Mike Pelfrey and Dillon Gee.

Because the Mets have three off-days during the first 15 days of the season, Santana will be starting every sixth day for most of the month of April.  Barring any rainouts, Santana will not have to start on the more traditional fifth day until April 28 in Colorado.  But once the calendar hits May, the Mets will go through their longest stretch of the year without any scheduled off-days, playing 20 games in 20 days from May 11 to May 30.  Santana would have to make four consecutive starts on only four days rest during that time frame.

Will Santana be ready for the extra work once May comes around?  For that matter, what about the rest of the starting rotation?  The Mets might not have to answer these questions if they consider what I'm about to say. Perhaps the time has come for the Mets to go to a six-man rotation.

Earlier this week, Chris Young was signed by the Mets to a minor league deal to give the team some much-needed depth in the starting rotation.  Although Young is still recovering from the shoulder injury that put the kibosh on his 2011 season, he is hopeful that he can be ready by June.  If not, his contract contains language that would allow for his release should he not be on the Mets' major league roster by June 1 and July 1.

So let's say Young is ready to make his season debut in June.  The Mets are not going to put him out there every fifth day and expect a complete game from him every time, but they are going to make him a starter.  This is where the six-man rotation comes into play.

With a six-man rotation, Chris Young would get extra rest, occasionally going up to a full week between starts if there is a scheduled off-day in the mix.  Last year, Young threw 103 pitches in his Mets' debut on April 5.  He then came back on four days rest and threw 108 pitches in his next start.  He was on the disabled list soon after.  Once he returned from the DL, Young threw 88 pitches in only 4⅔ innings on April 26.  In his next start, also on four days rest, he threw 97 pitches.  That 97^th pitch was the last pitch he'd throw for the Mets in 2011.

If you blinked, you missed it.  This was Chris Young's only start as a Met at Citi Field in 2011.

Clearly, Young will need more time between his starts if he wants to finish the season on the major league roster.  But he won't be the only pitcher who could benefit from pitching in a six-man rotation.

Johan Santana is the obvious first person you'd think of who would be better served by pitching every sixth day.  Since he would be going every fifth day during the aforementioned 20-games-in-20-days stretch, it would behoove the Mets not to wear him out before the All-Star Break if they want to be sure he's still healthy by the break.  Pitching as part of a six-man rotation would give Santana a better chance of staying strong throughout the season.

Also, Jonathon Niese has never pitched more than 200 innings in a season.  Since becoming a regular member of the starting rotation in 2010, Niese has started each season strongly only to fall apart at the end.  In 2010, Niese was 8-5 with a 3.33 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in his first 23 starts, which included his near-perfect game on June 10.  Over his final seven starts, however, Niese was awful, going 1-5 with a 7.57 ERA and 1.96 WHIP.  Opposing batters hit .345 against him and reached base at a .419 clip over his last seven starts, as opposed to a respectable .262/.324 split over his first 23 appearances.

It was more of the same for Niese in 2011.  Over his first 20 appearances (which included one relief effort), Niese went 9-7 with a 3.73 ERA and 1.25 WHIP.  After July 16, Niese made seven starts, going 2-4 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.64 WHIP before spending the final month of the season on the disabled list.

In a six-man rotation, Niese wouldn't hit the proverbial wall so early in the season and could actually finish the season strongly, which would boost his confidence and stamina for future seasons.  The same could be said for another young starter in the rotation, Dillon Gee.

Dillon Gee led the team with 13 wins, but things got a little hairy for him at the end of the season.

Gee started his rookie season on a high note, going 7-0 with an impressive 2.86 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in his first 13 appearances (10 starts).  But Gee was a shadow of his first-half self after that breakthrough start, going 6-6 with a 5.51 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his final 17 starts.  If Gee were to get an extra day of rest between starts, which a six-man rotation would allow him to do, his first-half success could stretch well into the second half.

Mike Pelfrey has never had any type of injury history.  In fact, he is one of only two starters to make 30 or more starts for the Mets in four consecutive seasons during the 21st century (Tom Glavine did it five straight years from 2003 to 2007).  That being said, with Pelfrey's consistency for being inconsistent, perhaps the Mets would like to see him on the mound fewer than 30 times in 2012.  A six-man rotation would solve that problem.

That brings us to R.A. Dickey.  The force has been strong with the knuckleballer ever since he joined the Mets in 2010.  Although Dickey owns a losing record (19-22) in two seasons with the Mets, he has been the team's most consistent starter during that period.  His 3.08 ERA and 1.21 WHIP are more indicative of what he can do on the mound than his won-loss record.  But being a knuckleball pitcher also gives Dickey an extra edge.  He doesn't need as much rest between starts since his signature pitch isn't very taxing on his arm.  That might also work to his advantage in a six-man rotation.  How so?  Dickey can pitch in relief between starts.

It's not unusual to see knuckleball pitchers come out of the bullpen when they're not starting.  Dickey has had a relief appearance in each of his two seasons in New York.  The recently-retired Tim Wakefield made it a habit in Boston.  In 17 years with the Red Sox, Wakefield made 430 starts and 160 relief appearances.  Wakefield won 87 games after his 37th birthday.  Hall of Famer Phil Niekro won 173 games after he blew out his 37 candles.  Why is that age important?  Because that's how old R.A. Dickey is now.

 R.A. Dickey could stand tall for the Mets as a starter and as an occasional reliever.

Knuckleball artists can pitch often and be successful at an advanced age.  R.A. Dickey can start every sixth game and can be used as needed between starts to help the injury-prone starters (Santana and Young) stay healthy, as well as helping the young starters (Niese and Gee) stay fresh so they can be productive for the entire season.  Using Dickey out of the bullpen on occasion would also solve the problem of how many pitchers the Mets should carry.  With six starters, that would only leave five spots in the bullpen should the Mets decide to go with 11 pitchers and a six-man bench.  But with Dickey doing double duty (say that five times fast) as a starter and reliever, the Mets could still carry six relievers or they could opt for an extra bench player if they felt the need to do so.

Most teams frown upon going to a six-man rotation.  But then again, there was a time when teams didn't want to use a five-man rotation, choosing to go with four starters at a time.  Times and injuries have changed over the years and perhaps the six-man rotation is the way of the future.  But for the Mets, the future might be the present.

If Johan Santana wants to stay healthy for a full season, if Chris Young wants to pitch in the major leagues again, if Jonathon Niese and Dillon Gee want to be productive for an entire year and if Mike Pelfrey doesn't want to get his @$$ handed to him, perhaps Terry Collins should consider going to a six-man rotation in 2012.  It's been too long since the team has been consistent for an entire year.  Perhaps this would help move the team achieve a modicum of consistency that they've sorely lacked since they moved to Citi Field.

Joey's Small Bites: Fearless Forecast For The 2012 Mets

Hey, everyone!  This is Joey Beartran.  After nearly six long months of waiting, the 2012 season is almost upon us.  Are you ready for some baseball?

I hope you’re looking forward to the 2012 season as much as I am.  What do you mean, no?  Surely, there must be something you’re looking forward to seeing the Mets accomplish in 2012?  Still no?

Aren’t you looking forward to the return of Banner Day?  What about the induction of John Franco into the Mets Hall of Fame?  (And no, before you ask, there is no truth to the rumor that Franco will come out of the bullpen during that game to pitch to Lance Berkman in a tight spot.)

Well, I’m certainly looking forward to the 2012 season.  In addition to all the new menu items at Citi Field, (buttermilk-marinated fried chicken with gooey mac and cheese and cornbread?  Yes, please!) the 2012 season has plenty of storylines worth talking about.

Will Johan Santana return to form after missing the entire 2011 season?  How will Ruben Tejada perform at shortstop after replacing one of the most popular players in Mets history?  Is Andres Torres this decade’s Rey Sanchez, merely holding a spot warm until Kirk Nieuwenhuis is ready to take over as the Mets’ everyday centerfielder?  Will the Mets score some runs for R.A. Dickey before he’s forced to write a book about his lack of run support?  And is this the year the Mets finally pitch that first no-hitter?

I don’t need a Magic 8 Ball like my colleague has used in the past to predict the outcome of the Mets season.  Instead, I’ll just consult with my baseball cognoscenti to come up with my predictions for the 2012 Mets.  Baseball predictions are never an exact science, but just like Carlos Beltran’s health, I feel 85% confident that my predictions will become reality for the Mets in 2012.  So what are we waiting for?  Let’s get this prediction party started!

My crystal ball atop a replica of Shea Stadium will help me forecast the Mets' future.

In their 51^st season of existence and third ballpark, a Met will finally hit three home runs in a home game.  This will finally put an end to Gary Cohen and Howie Rose talking about how no Met has ever swatted three longballs at home.  However, they will probably move on to discussing how no right-handed batter has ever collected five hits for the Mets in a home game.  For the record, six Mets have five-hit games at home, all at Shea Stadium.  Four of them swung from the left side of the plate (John Milner, Rusty Staub, Dave Magadan and Carlos Delgado) and the other two were switch hitters (Wally Backman and Jose Reyes).  You can look it up!

Daniel Murphy will break the single season club record for doubles.  Prior to 2012, only six Met hitters had ever accumulated 40 doubles in a season and all of them were either right-handed batters or switch hitters.  Murphy will become the first left-handed swinger to eclipse the 40 double mark (John Olerud is the current single season leader with 39 in 1999) and will then double his pleasure by surpassing one-season wonder Bernard Gilkey, who set the franchise record with 44 two-baggers in 1996.  Gilkey might have surpassed his mark in 1997, but was never the same after being hit in the head by a fly ball during a close encounter at Shea Stadium.

It's keep your eye on the ball, Bernard.  Not keep your head on it.

Jonathon Niese will make the National League All-Star team.  He will also become only the tenth pitcher in team history (after Tom Seaver, Jon Matlack, Jerry Koosman, Dwight Gooden, Sid Fernandez, David Cone, Al Leiter, Pedro Martinez and Johan Santana) and fifth southpaw (Matlack, Koosman, Leiter and Santana were the others) to strike out 200 batters in a single season.  As a result, his new nose will be voted team MVP.

Jason Bay will have his finest season as a Met, hitting .270 with 21 HR and 80 RBI.  Of course, astute fans will realize that these were the exact numbers produced by Jeff Kent in 1993 and will continue to be upset at Bay for not living up to his contract and for reminding them of Kent.  The sensitive Bay responds by promising a Rico Brogna-type season in 2013, wisely remembering that Brogna was actually liked at Shea Stadium despite producing Kent-like numbers during his one full season in New York (.289, 22 HR, 76 RBI in 1995).

Frank Francisco will go 20-for-20 in saves by early July, but when a shocking exposé reveals that he is actually Armando Benitez’s second cousin, once removed, the pressure of having to perform like his family member will cause Francisco to wilt in the summer heat.  Francisco will indeed pitch like Benitez, protecting a few three-run ninth inning leads against the non-contending Pirates and Astros, before blowing saves against the contending Phillies and Marlins to eliminate any hopes of the Mets claiming the second wild card spot.

After spending most of the season below .500, Terry Collins motivates the team by telling them he will end his unintentional tribute to Steve Urkel by not wearing his uniform pants so high, but only if the team can finish the season with a .500 record.  The team responds with a hot streak in September to pull to within one game of .500 entering the season finale in Miami.  But after an unexpected pep talk from his cousin Armando, Frank Francisco blows the save in the team’s final game, resulting in an 80-82 final record (and clinching a playoff berth for the Marlins).  Collins is then seen giving Benitez an undisclosed amount of money after the game, thanking him for his surprise appearance.

Well, that’s it for my 2012 predictions.  Which ones will come true?  Which ones will you wish you had thought of first?  For that, we’ll have to wait until October 3, when the Mets’ 50^th anniversary season comes to a close.  But one thing’s for sure.  The Mets will be a fun team to watch in 2012.

Over the past three seasons, the Mets have gone from being an overpriced team of underachievers to a young team playing above its collective head.  They might not be ready to compete in the National League East yet, but Terry Collins will make sure that all 25 players on the roster give their best effort on the field, with or without the help of Armando Benitez. 

Before long, the Mets will be Amazin’ again.  But for now, ya gotta believe that the team is headed in the right direction, even if that direction is temporarily keeping them near the bottom of the NL East.  So try not to pay too much attention to the standings and enjoy one game at a time.  Somewhere along the way, the Mets will give you a reason to smile.  I’m 85% sure of that.