Jumat, 10 Juni 2011

8 Since 7 Played 1

Eight years ago today, the Mets were playing the Texas Rangers in an interleague game. The Mets fell short in that game, losing by the final score of 9-7. It was just another game on the schedule for the Mets, who were on their way to a 66-95 season under first-year manager Art Howe. But one significant thing did happen on June 10, 2003, for that was the day Jose Reyes made his debut for the New York Mets.

On the day before his 20th birthday, Reyes became the first teenager since Dwight Gooden in 1984 to take the field for the Mets. The charismatic shortstop was one of the top prospects in the Mets’ minor league system and was called up to replace Rey Sanchez, who was placed on the disabled list with a thumb injury. Although Reyes started his career with a bang (he hit a grand slam for his first major league homer five days after his debut), injuries sidelined him over his first two seasons in the big leagues. His second season with the Mets (2004) saw Reyes move to second base to accommodate Kaz Matsui, who never lived up to expectations after signing a three-year deal to become the team’s new shortstop.

Finally, in 2005, Jose Reyes stayed healthy for the first time. He moved back to shortstop, displacing the oft-booed Matsui, who moved over to second base. Reyes played in all but one game that season, hitting .273, while banging out 190 hits. He also led the National League with 60 stolen bases, becoming only the second Met to steal as many as 60 bases in a season (Roger Cedeño stole 66 bases in 1999). Reyes’ run of excellence and good health continued over the next three years, when he stole an average of 66 bases per season, including a franchise-record 78 in 2007. He also added power to his game, racking up extra-base hit after extra-base hit. From 2006-2008, Reyes hit 103 doubles, 48 triples and 47 home runs.

Then the injury bug victimized Reyes again, as he was limited to 36 games in 2009. Reyes did come back to play in 133 games in 2010, but without a strong supporting cast around him, his play suffered. He finished the season with 83 runs scored, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases, all of which were career-lows for a season in which he played at least 100 games.

Now comes 2011, a year in which Reyes once again has had to play without a strong supporting cast. Last year, he couldn't rise to the occasion (although in his defense, an assortment of minor injuries did slow him down a bit). This year, he's surpassed all expectations and is carrying the team with him. Through the Mets' first 62 games, Reyes has already surpassed last season's total for triples. His 11 three-baggers lead the majors, and he also ranks at or near the top of the league leaderboard in batting average, hits, multi-hit games, runs scored, doubles and stolen bases.

Jose Reyes has been special for many years and is now just entering his prime. However, just as he's in the midst of his best season in the majors, he may also be nearing the end of his Mets career, as free agency is looming for Reyes after this season. Perhaps Sandy Alderson will find a few extra million dollars in Fred Wilpon's wallet at the end of the season to give to Reyes. Whether or not he accepts the offer is up to him.

However, regardless of what happens to Reyes in the next few months, let us not forget the dynamic player he has been for the Mets. As Reyes goes, so goes the team. If the Mets are involved in a late-inning rally, Reyes is usually involved. If the team needs a spark of life, Reyes will provide the charge.

Since the days of Darryl Strawberry and Dwight Gooden, no homegrown player has provided as much excitement to the Mets' fanbase as Jose Reyes. We've watched him grow from an energetic teenager to a sometimes immature superstar to the leader he has become this year.

The team may have changed dramatically since Jose Reyes played his first game eight years ago today, and Reyes has changed quite a bit as well, but one thing hasn't changed. Jose Reyes plays the game to win. He plays the game to have fun. He plays the game, period. We should be thankful that we've been able to watch Reyes play for the past eight years. Talent like that doesn't come along very often.

Kamis, 09 Juni 2011

Jason Bay, Benchwarmer

According to Adam Rubin, Jason Bay will not start in tonight's series finale against the Brewers and tomorrow's game against the Pirates. The decision was made by Terry Collins prior to tonight's game in an effort to give Bay time to regroup after his horrendous start. Jason Pridie will be taking over for Bay in left field until Collins sees fit to re-insert the former slugger into the lineup.

Bay is currently going through the longest slump of his career, not collecting a hit in his last 23 at-bats. As a result, his batting average has dropped to a Mario Mendoza-like .207. Since going 3-for-4 against the Washington Nationals on May 19, Bay has batted .161 with no extra-base hits and 15 strikeouts.

Although the temporary benching is for "at least two games", Bay is expected to be back in the lineup for Saturday's game in Pittsburgh against right-hander James McDonald. In four plate appearances against McDonald, Bay is 1-for-3 with a walk and an RBI.

It's clear that Jason Bay has been a shadow of his former self since coming back from the disabled list in late April. It's also clear that he has been hurting the team by not producing out of the cleanup spot. Although a trip to the minors helped established veterans Bobby Jones and Steve Trachsel salvage their careers with the Mets, a demotion was not in the cards for Bay, as Collins did not think that would be beneficial for the leftfielder.

Jason Bay is a nice guy and was a fine player for many years. Whether or not he can continue to be that fine player remains to be seen. For now, he'll be riding the pine for at least two games, hoping that when he does make his return to the starting lineup, he can bring the offensive skills with him that have been missing ever since he became a Met.

It's Deja Brew All Over Again

Last night, after struggling to find their offensive groove at Miller Park in Milwaukee, the Mets scored five runs in the eighth inning against Brewers' reliever Kameron Loe to turn a 2-1 deficit into a seemingly comfortable 6-2 lead. The key words are "seemingly" and "comfortable". Because if you've been following the Mets recently, the late innings have been anything but comfortable.

Let's look at the the Mets' last six losses. Methinks you'll be able to notice a pattern in these half-dozen defeats:

  • May 27: Mets lead 3-2 in the eighth inning; lose to Phillies, 6-4.
  • May 28: Mets lead 2-1 in the eighth inning; lose to Phillies, 5-2.
  • May 31: Mets lead 1-0 in the eighth inning; lose to Pirates, 5-1.
  • June 1: Mets lead 2-0 in the seventh inning; lose to Pirates, 9-3.
  • June 3: Mets lead 3-1 in the eighth inning; lose to Braves, 6-3.
  • June 8: Mets lead 6-2 in the eighth inning; lose to Brewers, 7-6.

The Mets haven't exactly been writing the book on how to hold late-inning leads, have they? In fact, the Mets haven't been able to hold on to leads, regardless of the inning, all season. In 18 of their 32 losses, the Mets were in front at some point. However, it's those late-inning losses that everyone seems to remember. Ready for more?

  • April 10: Mets lead 3-1 in the eighth inning; lose to Nationals in 11 innings, 7-3.
  • April 30: Mets lead 1-0 in the seventh inning; lose to Phillies, 2-1.
  • May 16: Mets lead 1-0 in the seventh inning; lose to Marlins in 11 innings, 2-1.
  • May 22: Mets lead 3-1 in the seventh inning; lose to Yankees, 9-3.

That's ten losses this season in which the Mets held the lead going into the seventh inning or later, or nearly one-third of their 32 losses. Had they held on to those ten late-inning leads, the Mets would be proud owners of a 39-22 record, which would give them the best record in all of baseball. Even if they had split those ten games, which would still allow for five blown late-inning leads, the Mets would have a 34-27 record and would find themselves in the thick of the National League playoff race. (The Milwaukee Brewers are currently leading the Wild Card race with a 35-27 record.)

But no, the Mets have not won any of those ten games and are now in a position that has become all too familiar to them, fourth place in the NL East with a 29-32 record.

Last night, two swings of the bat from Milwaukee's most famous duo since Laverne & Shirley (Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder) turned a four-run eighth-inning lead into their latest "what if?" loss. It's getting to the point where Lenny and Squiggy could probably lead a late-inning charge against the Mets.

Heck, Nyjer Morgan claimed he didn't even know that his ninth-inning double off Goose Gossage's less successful clone, Dale Thayer, was a walk-off hit. I guess Morgan has been spending too much time as his alter ego on Twitter, Tony Plush. Otherwise, he would have known that blowing late-inning leads has become commonplace for the Mets.

A certain pennant-winning manager for the Mets once said that it's never over 'til it's over. Perhaps the current Mets should heed the philosophical words of that wise man. If they don't do something soon, the 2011 season might be over before it's over.

Selasa, 07 Juni 2011

Could Jose Reyes Follow In Willie McGee's Footsteps?

The year was 1990 and the world was a different place. The Mets said goodbye to Davey Johnson and Darryl Strawberry. The Yankees really did suck (and not just because Mets and Red Sox fans said so). Al Gore had not yet invented the internet. The Ramones were still together (and still breathing). And Jose Reyes was seven years old.

It was also a banner year for Willie McGee, who won his second National League batting title and played in the World Series with the Oakland A's. Yes, you read that correctly and no, you did not just enter a parallel universe where the A's played in the senior circuit.

So how in the world did Willie McGee become a batting champion in the National League while playing in the American League? Let me tell you a little story, and trust me, we'll get around to Jose Reyes faster than he can leg out a triple.

In 1990, Willie McGee was leading the National League in batting with a .335 average, but his performance was not helping his team, as the Cardinals were mired in last place in the NL East. Choosing to rebuild, St. Louis traded away the former NL MVP (1985) to the Oakland A's on August 29. However, since Willie McGee switched leagues in the deal, his American League numbers would not be combined with his National League numbers, meaning his NL batting mark of .335 would remain unchanged despite his .274 batting average with Oakland in 113 at-bats.

During his time in St. Louis, McGee made 542 plate appearances, or 40 more than the 502 required to qualify for the batting title. When the season ended, no National League player had been able to surpass McGee's .335 average (Dodgers first baseman Eddie Murray finished second with a .330 batting average and the Mets' Dave Magadan finished third at .328), so McGee was awarded the National League batting title, despite finishing the season in the American League. Eddie Murray won nothing but some lovely parting gifts despite leading the major leagues in batting, as his .330 mark was higher than McGee's combined .324 average with St. Louis and Oakland.

So why am I boring you with this history lesson and what does this have to do with the Mets?

Well, my fellow Mets fans, Jose Reyes is batting .337. That leads the National League entering tonight's game against the Brewers (Joey Votto is second with a .336 average). Jose Reyes' name is also being bandied about in trade rumor after trade rumor. You can probably guess where I'm going with this. What if Jose Reyes continues his hot hitting, ups his trade value, and gets dealt to an American League team at the trade deadline (July 31)?

Barring any rainouts, the Mets will be playing their 108th game on July 31. Jose Reyes has played in all but three of the Mets' 59 games. He has 265 plate appearances in those 56 games, an average of 4.73 PA per game. If Reyes plays in all 49 games left before the trade deadline, he would need 237 plate appearances (an average of 4.84 PA per game) to qualify for the National League batting title. So you see, it could happen.

Everybody clap your hands! (And while you're at it, don't trade Reyes.)

The Mets have never had a batting champion in their history. John Olerud came close in 1998, finishing second to Larry Walker. Cleon Jones and Dave Magadan also fell short, finishing third in 1969 and 1990, respectively. Could you imagine if Jose Reyes won the 2011 National League batting title after being traded to an American League team, a la Willie McGee over two decades ago? Stranger things have happened in Mets history, but this would probably be as strange as it gets.

Mets fans would have no problem with Jose Reyes becoming the team's first batting champion. But I'm sure they'd like to see him do it in a Mets uniform.

Minggu, 05 Juni 2011

If You're Not Booing Jason Bay Yet, Perhaps This Will Help

Jason Bay is being paid $66 million by the New York Mets to suck. Judging by the boos at Citi Field, he is earning every penny of it. But what are they booing exactly? Is it the lack of home runs by Bay after smashing 36 longballs for Boston in 2009? Is it the failure to drive in runs after recording four 100 RBI seasons in the five seasons prior to becoming a Met? Or is it just that Oliver Perez and Luis Castillo are no longer around, so someone's gotta get the boo treatment.

Well, my fellow Mets fans, I think it's a combination of all those things. Jason Bay has been a disappointment. He's barely been worth $66, let alone $66 million. So feel free to boo him if you choose to do so. If you still don't see why he should be booed, let me throw some numbers at you about Jason Bay that you might not have known.

There have been 96 everyday players (non-pitchers) in history to strike out at least 125 times as members of the Mets. Of those 96, only one of them did not register at least 500 career at-bats for the Mets. That player is Jason Bay (127 Ks in 482 at-bats).

This year, Jason Bay has a slugging percentage of .291 in 134 at-bats. To put that into perspective, Jason Isringhausen has a .299 slugging percentage in 97 career at-bats for the Mets. Sticking on the Jason vs. Jason theme, Bay has 10 RBI this season in those 134 at-bats. In 37 fewer career at-bats, Izzy has 11 RBI.

Jason Bay has 38 extra-base hits in his Mets career (482 at-bats), which means he collects an extra-base hit every 12.7 at-bats. Here are former Mets with similar numbers:

  • Victor Diaz: 39 XBH in 350 at-bats.
  • Tsuyoshi Shinjo: 38 XBH, 514 at-bats.
  • Luis Lopez: 37 XBH, 548 at-bats.
  • Desi Relaford: 35 XBH, 301 at-bats.
  • Marlon Anderson: 33 XBH, 446 at-bats.
  • Dave Gallagher: 33 XBH, 376 at-bats.
  • Eric Valent: 33 XBH, 313 at-bats.
  • Marv Throneberry: 31 XBH, 371 at-bats.
  • Tim Bogar: 30 XBH, 491 at-bats.
  • Chico Walker: 30 XBH, 440 at-bats.

None of those hitters would be considered a great, or even good hitter. Similarly, none of those hitters ever earned anything near $66 million or a comparable amount for the era in which they played.

Let's face it. Power hitters are going to suffer when they sign with or are traded to the Mets. Citi Field is the park where home runs go to die. However, the dimensions of the park should not do anything to a player's extra base-hit total or strikeout total. Apparently, Jason Bay never got that memo.

So if you still don't think Jason Bay should be booed at Citi Field, perhaps the reasons listed above might cause you to rethink your booing strategy. $66 million bought the Mets a plate at Jason Bay's all-you-can-K buffet. All you have to do is buy a ticket for far less than that to let Bay know that he hasn't been worth the price of a Happy Meal.

Terry > Jerry

Last night, the Mets scored five runs in the seventh inning to defeat Jair Jurrjens and the Atlanta Braves, 5-0. The big blow was provided by Jose Reyes, whose bases-loaded triple stretched a 1-0 lead to 4-0. Reyes later scored on a sacrifice fly by the current National League Rookie of the Month, Justin Turner.

Reyes has been the team's best hitter all season. He currently owns a nine-game hitting streak, batting .462 over the nine games (18-for-39). Over that stretch, Reyes is slugging .744 and has an otherwordly 1.231 OPS. Those numbers are more common for a middle-of-the-order hitter than a leadoff hitter.

So of course, during last night's post-game interview session, Terry Collins was asked if he'd consider moving Reyes down the batting order into the three-hole, especially since Reyes has been one of the team's top run producers, to which Collins responded,


"He's going to stay where he is. I don't think you ask those kind of players to do things they're not comfortable with."



That's the perfect response by a man who clearly knows how to get the best out of his players. Jose Reyes would not be a good third-place hitter, even with the injuries to David Wright and Ike Davis. The Mets have been there and done that with Reyes already.

Last year, Jerry Manuel (a.k.a. Dead Manuel Walking) attempted to bolster the offense by moving the speedy Reyes from the leadoff spot to the three-hole. In 20 games as the Mets' No. 3 hitter, Reyes was not exactly the answer, as his .207/.253/.280 line in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage were not exactly what the Mets wanted from that spot in the batting order. In fact, R.A. Dickey's offensive numbers (.255/.296/.294) were better in every category. Dickey even had a better eye at the plate than Reyes did as the No. 3 hitter, as the knuckler drew three walks, while striking out eight times last season. Reyes, on the other hand, walked once and whiffed 11 times in 20 games batting third.

Jose Reyes should not bat third. Ever. Jerry Manuel failed to see that and it showed in Reyes' performance on the field. Terry Collins knows how not to mess with a good thing. Perhaps that's why Terry has a job now and Jerry doesn't. When a player like Jose Reyes is on fire, you can't mess with a good thing. Jerry Manuel played with Reyes' fire and he got burned.

Kamis, 02 Juni 2011

We (Finally) Believe In Comebacks

Comebacks. A nine-letter word that sometimes resembled a four-letter word to the Mets. After all, the Mets had not won a game in which they trailed by more than four runs all season. In fact, the last time the Mets rallied from a five-run deficit or greater was last September 15, when they defeated Pittsburgh at Citi Field. In that game, the Pirates held an early 5-0 lead, only to watch the Mets score seven runs in the fourth inning en route to the one-run victory. That game was started by Paul Maholm.

Fast forward to this afternoon. The Mets fell behind early to the Pirates by giving up an early touchdown. By the third inning, it was already 7-0 Pittsburgh (the Pirates, not the Steelers). Paul Maholm (that name sounds awfully familiar) was in control and it appeared as if the Mets were about to lose their third straight game to the Pirates.

Then after consecutive two-out singles by Jose Reyes and Justin Turner, Carlos Beltran smoked a three-run homer off the facade of the left field landing. The score was 7-3 and the rally was just beginning. The Mets then added four runs in the sixth inning to tie the game and took the lead with a two-run eighth. The second run in the eighth, which scored on a bases loaded walk by Carlos Beltran (his fourth RBI of the game) proved to be the game-winner, as Frankie Rodriguez gave up a run in the ninth before putting the 9-8 victory in the books.

So for the second straight year, Paul Maholm was given a seemingly comfortable lead at Citi Field and then watched it all crumble away as the Mets posted two unlikely comebacks.

Today's game marked the first time since June 30, 2000 that the Mets erased a seven-run deficit to come out on top. Only once have they come back from a larger hole to post a victory, wiping out an 8-0 deficit versus the Astros on September 2, 1972, to win 11-8.

The Mets' marketing slogan last year was "We Believe In Comebacks", something they did very little of in 2010. They might be a year late, but today the Mets finally believed enough to come back and post a victory in a game where they were left for dead. It's up to them to continue believing if they want to "come back" in the NL East standings.